AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock (TEM) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
NEUTRAL
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
SELL ALL$65
-16.6%5-Year
NEUTRAL$93
+19.9%Latest flagship insight
Valuation Reality Confronts Precision Oncology Data Engine Following Paper Profit Surge
There is high consensus that clinical data scale and reimbursement tailwinds support strong top-line compounding, but sharp divergence persists regarding near-term earnings quality and share dilution. While biopharma data licensing commands software-like margins, heavy laboratory overhead, convertible debt, and multiple compression limit near-term per-share equity appreciation.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Universal Investor (Polymath), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Elon Musk (Visionary), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Machiavelli (Insider), Michael Burry (Vulture), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Ray Dalio (Strategist). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $11,991 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 70.80 | -9.04% | -9.04% | Elevated Treasury yields and third-quarter earnings disclosures expose underlying operating losses as non-operating investment gains fade. Investors derisk speculative growth holdings, initiating valuation multiple contraction despite steady clinical test volumes. |
| Q1 2027 | 65.52 | -7.46% | -15.83% | Consolidation of the Personalis acquisition expands the diluted share count and brings first-year integration expenses. Fourth-quarter reporting confirms ongoing cash burn, prompting sell-side analysts to temper intermediate margin expectations. |
| Q2 2027 | 65.57 | +0.07% | -15.77% | Contractual Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test reimbursement pricing begins lifting realized revenue across solid tumor sequencing panels. Expanding diagnostic gross margins provide tangible evidence of operational progress, arresting immediate valuation multiple declines. |
| Q3 2027 | 64.89 | -1.04% | -16.64% | Expanded biopharma Insights licensing contracts and cross-selling of minimal residual disease assays through provider networks support revenue momentum. However, high discount rates and lab integration costs keep equity gains modest. |
| Q4 2027 | 64.84 | -0.07% | -16.70% | Approaching year-end, tax-loss rebalancing and elevated debt servicing costs induce mild multiple friction. Full-year figures demonstrate narrowed cash burn, though headline free cash flow remains negative, keeping price action subdued. |
| Q1 2028 | 64.64 | -0.31% | -16.96% | Full-year 2027 reporting highlights positive adjusted EBITDA, but persistent stock compensation and integration overhead restrain GAAP operating margins. Multiple compression toward mid-single-digit sales benchmarks limits upside following earnings. |
| Q2 2028 | 67.76 | +4.83% | -12.95% | Accelerated clinical adoption of minimal residual disease surveillance and broader commercial reimbursement drive strong volume growth. Laboratory throughput efficiencies lower per-sample sequencing costs, sparking renewed fundamental accumulation. |
| Q3 2028 | 68.97 | +1.79% | -11.39% | Multi-year pharmaceutical data renewals at higher contractual values expand high-margin Insights revenue. The improving revenue mix cushions the consolidated cost structure against broader macroeconomic stagnation and elevated borrowing rates. |
| Q4 2028 | 70.97 | +2.90% | -8.82% | Centralized laboratory automation across acquired testing facilities stabilizes gross margins near sixty-four percent. Operating cash flow approaches sustainable breakeven, removing acute financing anxiety and fostering solid quarterly price advancement. |
| Q1 2029 | 73.74 | +3.90% | -5.26% | First-quarter disclosures confirm the business is approaching sustainable cash-flow neutrality without reliance on investment gains. Core oncology testing demand demonstrates counter-cyclical stability, lifting institutional confidence and equity valuation. |
| Q2 2029 | 75.25 | +2.04% | -3.33% | Biopharma demand for clinical trial patient matching algorithms generates high-margin success fees. Positive operating cash flow allows the company to self-fund laboratory maintenance, validating the long-term data aggregation thesis. |
| Q3 2029 | 77.47 | +2.96% | -0.47% | Routine capital reinvestment in sequencing hardware and bioinformatics infrastructure temporarily moderates free cash flow conversion. Quoted equity prices experience modest consolidation as investors digest steady twenty-percent organic growth. |
| Q4 2029 | 79.29 | +2.34% | +1.86% | The company achieves its first full fiscal year of authentic GAAP operating profitability. Eliminating structural operating deficits triggers positive sell-side revisions and broader institutional accumulation across fundamental healthcare funds. |
| Q1 2030 | 80.92 | +2.06% | +3.96% | Selective competitor price discounting in standard hereditary panels prompts modest pricing concessions. However, expanding minimal residual disease surveillance volumes and high-margin data licensing preserve overall gross profit expansion. |
| Q2 2030 | 83.44 | +3.11% | +7.19% | Commercial rollout of proprietary predictive diagnostic algorithms deepens clinician lock-in across regional cancer networks. Operating leverage translates volume expansion directly into operating income growth, driving consistent equity appreciation. |
| Q3 2030 | 84.47 | +1.24% | +8.52% | Upcoming convertible note maturities prompt investor focus on capital structure refinancing terms. Elevated market rates prevent multiple expansion, but solid internal cash generation protects equity valuation from severe discounting. |
| Q4 2030 | 86.67 | +2.60% | +11.34% | Robust fourth-quarter enterprise software and data licensing true-ups deliver strong cash inflows. Management outlines a self-funding balance sheet roadmap, encouraging steady accumulation into the fiscal year-end close. |
| Q1 2031 | 89.32 | +3.06% | +14.75% | Mature clinical diagnostic contracts covering seventy percent of commercial lives deliver highly predictable cash collections. Reduced revenue volatility and improved working capital turnover support measured, fundamentally backed share-price gains. |
| Q2 2031 | 91.48 | +2.42% | +17.52% | Consistent double-digit operating margins across diagnostic testing and biopharma data segments validate structural scale economies. Compounding organic cash flows enable debt reduction without dilutive equity issuance. |
| Q3 2031 | 93.34 | +2.03% | +19.91% | The five-year forecasting window closes with the franchise valued as an established, profitable precision medicine infrastructure leader, where durable cash compounding comfortably balances normalized valuation multiples. |
Tempus AI presents a profound structural dichotomy between an expanding clinical-molecular data asset and a capital-intensive diagnostic laboratory engine currently trading near ten times sales. The base-case economic argument recognizes durable twenty-percent organic volume compounding across oncology sequencing and biopharma licensing, further bolstered by Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test reimbursement pricing. However, forensic analysis of second-quarter 2026 filings reveals that reported GAAP net profitability was engineered through approximately one hundred million dollars of non-operating marketable securities gains, concealing ongoing operating losses of seventy-six million dollars and negative free cash flownegative free cash flowA condition where cash outflows for operations and investment exceed cash generated in the period.View full glossary entry. In an environment defined by five-percent benchmark Treasury yields, the stock faces severe multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry toward normalized diagnostics benchmarks, compounded by impending equity dilutionequity dilutionThe reduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new shares.View full glossary entry from the 1.5-billion-dollar Personalis transaction.
Key insights
- Headline accounting profits obscure persistent operational cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry, demanding multiple quarters of genuine operating cash-flow generation to establish valuation support.
- The pending all-stock Personalis acquisition expands diluted share count toward 225 million shares, significantly dampening per-share earnings accretion over the intermediate horizon.
- High-margin biopharma data licensing provides indispensable operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry, but physical sequencing chemistry and lab overhead permanently cap blended gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry below true software peers.
Tempus AI is building an impressive library of genetic and clinical cancer data that pharmaceutical companies pay top dollar to access. However, the company is often priced like a pure software tech giant even though three-quarters of its business involves running physical, expensive laboratory tests. A recent quarterly profit was actually caused by one-time investment gains rather than true business earnings, and the company continues to burn cash while issuing new shares for major acquisitions.
Key insights
- Most revenue comes from physical lab tests that carry high supply and labor costs, preventing pure software profit marginsprofit marginsProfit margins measure the share of revenue retained as profit after covering specified costs, expressed as a percentage.View full glossary entry.
- A recent headline profit was driven by one-off investment gains, concealing real ongoing cash losses in daily operations.
- Upcoming share issuance to purchase another diagnostics company will dilute existing shareholders, limiting near-term stock price gains.
Deep Dive
Prevailing market sentiment treats the asset as an unassailable precision medicine artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry monopoly that has successfully achieved sustainable GAAP profitabilitygaap profitabilityGAAP profitability refers to earnings that remain positive under generally accepted accounting principles, including standard operating and noncash expense recognition.View full glossary entry. Sell-side commentary focuses on twenty-five percent revenue compounding, transformational minimal residual disease market acquisitions, and expanding biopharma data licensing. The crowd blithely assigns a ten-times sales multiple, anchoring on scientific prestige while overlooking that trailing free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry remains negative 273 million dollars.
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Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market sentiment treats the asset as an unassailable precision medicine artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry monopoly that has successfully achieved sustainable GAAP profitabilitygaap profitabilityGAAP profitability refers to earnings that remain positive under generally accepted accounting principles, including standard operating and noncash expense recognition.View full glossary entry. Sell-side commentary focuses on twenty-five percent revenue compounding, transformational minimal residual disease market acquisitions, and expanding biopharma data licensing. The crowd blithely assigns a ten-times sales multiple, anchoring on scientific prestige while overlooking that trailing free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry remains negative 273 million dollars.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd materially overestimates near-term owner economics, creating notable overpricing. The misread centers on earnings quality: second-quarter GAAP net income of 5.6 million dollars was manufactured by roughly one hundred million dollars in non-operating investment gains, masking a seventy-six-million-dollar operating loss. Investors price physical diagnostic sequencing at software-as-a-service multiples while ignoring heavy dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry from the 1.5-billion-dollar Personalis acquisition. When capital costs stay near five percent, cash-burning roll-ups face relentless multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Financial consolidation of the Personalis acquisition in early 2027, paired with late-2026 earnings disclosures, will force market repricing. When non-operating paper gains dissipate, ongoing GAAP operating deficits and an enlarged diluted share count of approximately 225 million shares will be fully exposed. The first observable repricing signal will occur when sell-side analysts trim price-to-sales multiples toward specialized laboratory benchmarks as revenue beats fail to translate into positive free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry per share.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Mixed
- Volatility
- High Erratic
- Cycle position
- Overshoot
Sentiment indicators diverge between momentum-driven retail enthusiasm celebrating headline accounting profitability and institutional caution regarding persistent free cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry. This tension indicates an extended valuation overshoot where multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry is likely to precede long-term fundamental compounding.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macroeconomic regimemacroeconomic regimeThe prevailing set of economic conditions including interest rates and inflation that influence asset pricing.View full glossary entry of Federal Reserve policy rates near four percent and benchmark Treasury yields testing five percent is a distinct headwind. High interest rates penalize long-duration equities that generate distant cash flows, raising the ultimate refinancing burden on 1.17 billion dollars of convertible debtconvertible debtDebt instruments convertible into equity, impacting balance sheet risk and potential shareholder dilution.View full glossary entry while forcing corporate pharmaceutical clients to scrutinize discretionary exploratory research and data-licensing budgets.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary analytical disagreement concerns whether Tempus should be valued as an asset-light software platform or a capital-intensive diagnostic laboratory. Bullish perspectives argue that proprietary clinical data flywheels and biopharma licensing command premium technology multiples exceeding ten times sales as operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry takes hold. Skeptics demonstrate that physical laboratory testing accounts for over seventy percent of sales, with trailing twelve-month free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry at negative 273 million dollars and headline net income distorted by investment revaluations. Tracking organic free cash flow conversionfree cash flow conversionThe proportion of earnings, EBITDA, or another operating measure converted into free cash flow over a specified period.View full glossary entry and post-merger share dilution will resolve whether the platform can outgrow its physical cost constraints.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreVery High83/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proprietary multimodal clinical data flywheel | Competitive Positioning | +31% | +45% | Tempus maintains a proprietary repository linking molecular profiling with longitudinal clinical records across a majority of United States oncologists. Biopharmaceutical developers pay premium software margins for structured real-world evidence to optimize clinical trial designs. As multi-year licensing deals compound, high-margin data revenue structurally lifts blended gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry, decoupling corporate growth from pure laboratory testing reimbursement over the five-year horizon. |
| Advanced diagnostic laboratory reimbursement migration | Regulatory | +22% | +34% | Securing Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test status for core sequencing panels, specifically tumor-only xT assays, establishes higher standardized Medicare reimbursement rates. This regulatory milestone provides an estimated eighty-five-million-dollar annualized high-margin revenue uplift. Standardized reimbursement schedules mitigate commercial payer denial volatility, improving cash collections and directly accelerating the corporate transition toward sustainable operating profitability. |
| Minimal residual disease clinical scaling | Innovation And Product | +21% | +28% | Integrating Personalis's NeXT Personal whole-genome minimal residual disease assay into Tempus's nationwide clinical network unlocks high-growth recurrence monitoring across solid tumors. Because disease surveillance requires serial blood testing throughout oncology care, volume compounds exponentially. Expanded coverage under Medicare MolDX pathways establishes premium billing realizations, delivering high-margin diagnostic testing growth over the multi-year cycle. |
| Sequencing laboratory automation operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry | Operational Efficiency | +17% | +27% | Consolidating testing volume across automated sequencing centers lowers per-sample reagent and labor costs. Fixed laboratory overhead absorption and algorithmic variant curation have driven gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry from forty-five percent toward sixty-four percent. Continued test concentration across acquired networks will systematically dilute fixed facility expenditures, converting top-line clinical diagnostic expansion into positive GAAP operating profit. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation compression under elevated rates | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -29% | -10% | With benchmark Treasury yields probing five percent and central banks maintaining elevated policy rates, duration-sensitive equities face relentless valuation contraction. Trading near ten times trailing sales while generating negative 273 million dollars in free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry, the asset is intensely vulnerable. Higher capital costs heavily discount distant data-licensing cash flows, driving multiples toward normalized diagnostics industry peers. |
| Serial acquisition dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry and overhead | Capital Allocation | -23% | -22% | The programmatic roll-up strategy, punctuated by Ambry Genetics and the 1.5-billion-dollar Personalis transaction, dilutes common equity holders and inflates share count toward 225 million shares. In addition, annualized stock-based compensation exceeding two hundred million dollars continuously debases per-share intrinsic valueintrinsic valueThe estimated true worth of a business or asset based on fundamentals instead of short-term market mood.View full glossary entry. DilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry and transaction absorption costs prevent corporate enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry expansion from accruing cleanly to Class A shares. |
| Capital-intensive laboratory operations cost drag | Operational Efficiency | -19% | -24% | Over seventy percent of revenue originates from physical wet-lab specimen sequencing rather than digital software. Processing physical tissue and liquid biopsy samples requires substantial recurring outlays for reagents, sequencers, CLIA-certified pathology labor, and specialized logistics. These persistent marginal costs impose an operational ceiling on gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry, disproving assumptions of frictionless software profitability. |
| Commercial payer reimbursement denial friction | Competitive Positioning | -17% | -21% | Private commercial insurers are tightening prior-authorization hurdles and disputing claims for comprehensive multi-gene profiling panels. Heightened administrative scrutiny over unlisted molecular pathology billing codes lengthens days sales outstanding and increases bad-debt provisions. Payer friction compresses average realized test prices across hereditary and oncology volumes, dampening diagnostic margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catastrophic genetic privacy litigation ruling | 28% | -48% | A landmark federal court injunction or statutory penalty by 2027 regarding the commercialization of de-identified patient genomic data from acquired repositories like Ambry would impair the core business. Barring secondary data licensing would trigger contract cancellations, force massive asset impairment chargesimpairment chargesAccounting write-downs required when the carrying value of an asset exceeds its fair market value.View full glossary entry, and dismantle Tempus's highest-margin earnings stream. |
| Severe Medicare diagnostic reimbursement cut | 26% | -38% | Federal legislative or Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services policy reforms slashing Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test fee schedules by thirty percent in 2028 would eliminate diagnostic unit profitability. Facing persistent laboratory fixed costsfixed costsCosts that do not change materially with production or sales volume over a relevant range and period.View full glossary entry, gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry would collapse into deficits, forcing dilutive emergency recapitalizations to service maturing convertible debtconvertible debtDebt instruments convertible into equity, impacting balance sheet risk and potential shareholder dilution.View full glossary entry. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universal pan-cancer liquid biopsy approval | 30% | +50% | The FDA granting expedited first-line screening and surveillance approval for Tempus's xF liquid biopsy and NeXT Personal platforms would unlock a massive unaddressed oncology market. Triggered by landmark prospective clinical trial readouts by 2028, mandatory Medicare and private coverage would surge test volumes, accelerating GAAP operating profitability by years and driving aggressive multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry. |
| Sovereign biopharma foundation model consortium | 24% | +46% | A formal consortium of leading multinational pharmaceutical developers and sovereign health agencies contracting Tempus to construct the global foundational oncology simulation model by 2028 would revolutionize corporate economics. Upfront multi-year data licensing fees exceeding one billion dollars would immediately eliminate cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry, commanding elite enterprise software platform valuation multiples across public markets. |
Company Financial Analysis
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
Tempus's financial headlines present a misleading picture of profitability. Reported revenue expanded sharply to 1.27 billion dollars in fiscal 2025 and 382.5 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026, largely because of acquisitions. While the company announced a headline quarterly profit of 5.6 million dollars, that number was completely driven by roughly one hundred million dollars in paper investment gains from marketable securities, hiding a core operating loss of 75.9 million dollars. Beneath the surface, the company continues to spend more cash than it brings in, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow at negative 273 million dollars. For retail investors, sustainable financial health requires regular business operations to turn cash positive rather than relying on accounting investment gains.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.3B | USD -245M | USD -245.4M |
| 2024 | USD 693.4M | USD -705.8M | USD -211.2M |
| 2023 | USD 531.8M | USD -214.1M | USD -248.9M |
| 2022 | USD 320.7M | USD -289.8M | USD -186.6M |
| 2021 | USD 257.9M | USD -259.2M | USD -223.8M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2021 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Gross profit margins have climbed impressively, rising from fifteen percent in 2020 to roughly sixty-three percent in 2025. This improvement reflects automated laboratory processes and the growth of high-margin data licensing to pharmaceutical clients, which earns gross margins above seventy-five percent. Yet this gross-level success has not translated into operating profits. Operating margins remained deeply negative at minus twenty percent in 2025 due to massive research, development, and administrative overhead. Until high-margin software licensing becomes a much larger portion of total revenue, expensive laboratory overhead will continue to absorb gross profits.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -252.9M | -19.9% | -19.3% |
| 2024 | USD -691.1M | -99.7% | -101.8% |
| 2023 | USD -196.1M | -36.9% | -40.3% |
| 2022 | USD -265.4M | -82.8% | -90.4% |
| 2021 | USD -243.7M | -94.5% | -100.5% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
The balance sheet displays a reassuring cushion of cash that conceals substantial underlying debt. Tempus held 820.7 million dollars in cash and marketable securities in mid-2026, supported by 460 million dollars in zero-coupon convertible notes that save cash interest today but risk future share dilution. However, total debt obligations exceed 1.17 billion dollars against an accumulated deficit of over 2.5 billion dollars. Because daily operations are not yet generating cash, these debt commitments and the upcoming cash and stock obligations for the Personalis acquisition leave the company vulnerable if credit markets tighten further.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.3B | USD 755M | USD 722.3M net debt | 3.13x |
| 2024 | USD 468.1M | USD 448.3M | USD 127.1M net debt | 2.29x |
| 2023 | USD 488.1M | USD 197.6M | USD 322.4M net debt | 1.51x |
| 2022 | USD 433M | USD 302.9M | USD 130.1M net debt | 2.52x |
| 2021 | USD 238.9M | USD 277.7M | USD 38.7M net cash | 3.52x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
On paper, Tempus looks like a light-spending software company, with property and equipment expenditures consuming only about two percent of annual revenue. However, this metric hides massive capital commitments spent buying external businesses, including the 600-million-dollar purchase of Ambry Genetics and the agreed 1.5-billion-dollar deal for Personalis. In reality, processing millions of biological cancer samples demands ongoing spending on laboratory automation, expensive sequencing reagents, and heavy research budgets. Management is committing substantial capital to acquire specialized testing capacity, which delays the arrival of true free cash flow available to common shareholders.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 27.3M | USD 319M |
| 2024 | USD 22.1M | USD 316.8M |
| 2023 | USD 34.6M | USD 185.5M |
| 2022 | USD 18.4M | USD 162.3M |
| 2021 | USD 11.8M | USD 128.4M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (USD) | Base case (USD) | Bull case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $68.50 | $72.67 | $80.95 | $750.26 | |
| $61.65 | $68.01 | $84.18 | $736.44 | |
| $56.72 | $67.77 | $90.08 | $743.40 | |
| $54.55 | $67.96 | $95.48 | $755.15 | |
| $50.18 | $67.67 | $103.12 | $776.22 | |
| $47.67 | $67.55 | $109.31 | $787.13 | |
| $49.10 | $70.56 | $114.77 | $802.83 | |
| $48.12 | $71.78 | $123.95 | $812.05 | |
| $46.20 | $73.63 | $128.91 | $839.18 | |
| $47.12 | $75.91 | $126.33 | $850.50 | |
| $49.00 | $78.04 | $132.65 | $872.39 | |
| $50.47 | $80.15 | $137.96 | $885.51 | |
| $48.74 | $82.20 | $144.85 | $909.56 | |
| $49.72 | $83.92 | $143.41 | $916.13 | |
| $47.73 | $86.83 | $150.58 | $936.51 | |
| $49.16 | $87.96 | $155.09 | $947.34 | |
| $47.69 | $90.33 | $161.30 | $969.59 | |
| $49.59 | $93.10 | $166.14 | $979.99 | |
| $48.60 | $95.30 | $169.46 | $999.60 | |
| $50.06 | $97.38 | $174.54 | $1,012 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The evidentiary consensus establishes that while clinical data aggregation and Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test pricing provide a genuine operational engine, headline accounting profitability is an optical distortion. Forensic verification of second-quarter 2026 filings confirms that positive net income was produced entirely by approximately one hundred million dollars in non-operating marketable securities gains, masking seventy-six million dollars in continuing operating losses and negative operating cash flow. Reports that identify this earnings-quality disparity, model share dilution from the pending 1.5-billion-dollar Personalis transaction, and recognize the duration drag of five-percent Treasury yields receive primary weighting. Conversely, reports that uncritically treat nominal net income as proof of self-funding software economics or project rapid multiple expansion without modeling dilution are downweighted or zeroed. The strongest credible contrarian insight—that incremental testing margin flow-through and biopharma licensing can eventually generate positive free cash flow by 2028—is preserved, but anchored by intermediate multiple compression.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraExemplary research quality grounded in primary SEC disclosures and Federal Reserve policy. The report correctly isolates the ninety-eight-million-dollar non-operating securities gain that distorted headline profitability, accurately models post-Personalis share dilution to 225 million shares, and maintains strict balance sheet discipline.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Comprehensive empirical grounding using up-to-date SEC filings and corporate releases. Correctly notes that recent multiple expansion borrowed 2027 margin progress early, details the exchange-ratio reflexivity of the Personalis merger, and maps out the true Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test pricing uplift.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashRigorous forensic dissection uncovering the 102.8-million-dollar non-operating investment gain masking core operating losses of 75.9 million dollars. The report correctly analyzes unlisted molecular pathology billing risks, convertible debt maturity structures, and organic growth deceleration post-Ambry integration.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashA balanced, methodical framework reconciling sixty-three-percent diagnostic gross margins with seventy-five-percent data licensing economics. The analysis properly factors in Personalis transaction friction and Ambry privacy litigation risks, arriving at a well-defended terminal multiple near five times sales.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashOffers valuable non-consensus insights into founder dual-class voting control, stock-based compensation leakage, and laboratory reagent cost inflation. The report grounds its five-point-five times terminal sales multiple on sound operational realities, providing a useful governance discount counterweight.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides exceptional long-term capital cycle perspective, demonstrating how macroeconomic discount rates compress double-digit sales multiples toward median diagnostics benchmarks while operating earnings gradually mature. Its modeling of self-funding cash flow by 2029 is highly credible.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashSolid macro-regime alignment, demonstrating how higher interest rates penalize pre-free-cash-flow growth companies. It accurately highlights organic revenue growth moderating toward twenty-two percent following the Ambry lap, although its terminal margin trajectory is slightly conservative.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashEffectively articulates the physical constraints of processing specimen biopsies versus digital code, properly diagnosing organic deceleration and capital requirements. It provides a credible five-year path showing multiple compression before operational stabilization takes hold.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report provides sound owner-earnings scrutiny and correctly identifies persistent negative free cash flow alongside Personalis share dilution. However, it relies on standard value heuristics and slightly overstates terminal multiple contraction without fully crediting biopharma data licensing gross margins, justifying a modest allocation.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashDelivers a sharp, unsparing critique of balance sheet liabilities and accumulated deficits, highlighting convertible note obligations and stock compensation dilution. However, it overstates downside terminal collapse by discounting proven commercial testing volume growth.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashCorrectly flags chronic cash burn and restrictive monetary conditions, but duplicates core value arguments while adopting an overly punitive liquidation stance that underestimates the pricing power of Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test status and high-margin Insights licensing.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe narrative accurately contrasts wet-lab biological friction with software scalability, identifying negative free cash flow and duration sensitivity. Nevertheless, the analysis is heavily qualitative and lacks detailed primary source citations or granular segment decomposition, limiting its relative weighting in the synthesis.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashWhile providing imaginative framing around clinical data flywheels and foundation model adoption, the path assumes an aggressive twenty-five percent operating margin inflection without adequately addressing near-term dilution, five-percent bond yields, or payer collection delays.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashAssigned zero weight due to severe causal flaws. The analysis uncritically treats second-quarter accounting net profit as core operational self-funding, ignoring that non-operating mark-to-market securities gains masked ongoing seventy-six-million-dollar operating losses, while projecting extreme equity doubling despite major pending acquisition dilution.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 64 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htmfederalreserve.gov
- 02https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527753/000119312526392159/d158929d425.htmsec.gov
- 03https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717115/000119312526309073/d128960d8k.htmsec.gov
- 04https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717115/000119312526376895/d864810ds4.htmsec.gov
- 05Personalis, Inc. - Form 425 - FY2026sec.gov
- 06Personalis, Inc. - Form 425 - FY2026sec.gov
- 07Tempus to Acquire Personalis, More Tightly Integrating Molecular Residual Disease (MRD) into Its AI-Enabled Precision Oncology Platform | Tempus AIinvestors.tempus.com
- 08Tempus AI Is Ripping 30% Higher This Week After Morgan Stanley Boosts Revenue Outlook - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 09Tempus AI Building Multimodal Whole-Genome Dataset for AI Research | Bitget Newsbitget.com
- 10TEM Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNNcnn.com
- 11Moderna’s Cancer Breakthrough Just Made Tempus AI’s $1.5 Billion Bet Look Brilliantfinance.yahoo.com
- 12Tempus AI acquires cancer-monitoring firm Personalis for $1.5 billionfinance.yahoo.com
- 13Tempus AI Bets on MRD Testing Growth With Personalis Acquisitionfinance.yahoo.com
- 14Tempus AI Inc (TEM) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges 22% to $382. ...finance.yahoo.com
- 15Earnings call transcript: Tempus AI beats Q2 2026 EPS view as stock trims gains By Investing.cominvesting.com
And 49 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
annual: 2019-12-31–2025-12-31, 7 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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