AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock (TEM) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
Hold & Monitor
Model signals are balanced; wait for clearer evidence.
1-Year
NEUTRAL$61
+9.3%5-Year
NEUTRAL$124
+122.0%Latest flagship insight
Why the Market Misprices This Biological Data Moat Under Restrictive Rates
There is sharp divergence across reports regarding this asset's valuation sustainability, though high consensus exists on its formidable clinical data moat. While geopolitical decoupling acts as a primary driver, persistent cash burn and high leverage remain the central risks threatening near-term performance under restrictive monetary conditions.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit previous forecasts in full transparency
Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Machiavelli (Insider), Elon Musk (Visionary), Michael Burry (Vulture), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 12 advisors total.
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This asset presents a highly polarized setup, balancing an unassailable clinical-genomic data moatdata moatA durable competitive advantage created by proprietary, difficult-to-replicate, or continuously improving data.View full glossary entry against severe balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry leverage and cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry. The core thesis hinges on the rapid mix-shift toward high-margin data licensing and AI modeling, which is expected to drive operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry and push the company toward free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry neutrality by late 2027 or 2028. While the geopolitical tailwinds of the BIOSECURE Actbiosecure actBiosecure Act refers to legislation aimed at limiting reliance on certain biotechnology suppliers or data-linked firms for national security reasons.View full glossary entry structurally insulate domestic market share, the restrictive macroeconomic regimemacroeconomic regimeThe prevailing set of economic conditions including interest rates and inflation that influence asset pricing.View full glossary entry and elevated discount rates will continue to compress valuation multiples, demanding flawless operational execution.
Key insights
- High-margin data licensing and AI platform scaling act as the primary engines for gross margin expansiongross margin expansionAn increase in gross profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry.
- The BIOSECURE Actbiosecure actBiosecure Act refers to legislation aimed at limiting reliance on certain biotechnology suppliers or data-linked firms for national security reasons.View full glossary entry serves as a powerful regulatory barrier, redirecting domestic biopharma R&D spend away from foreign competitors.
- Persistent cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry and a heavy debt loaddebt loadSignificant financial burden requiring constant cash flow to maintain solvency and service interest.View full glossary entry create significant refinancing risks under a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
- Sharp divergence exists between bulls focusing on software-like operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry and bears highlighting capital-intensive diagnostic lab realities.
- Achieving positive free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry remains the critical catalyst to eliminate dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry fears and trigger institutional re-rating.
- Strategic risk includes potential regulatory data privacy crackdowns or technological commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry by generalized foundation models.
Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Forecasts—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? The general market narrative views the asset as a high-octane growth story positioned at the intersection of artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry and precision medicine. Retail investors and sell-side analysts are heavily focused on the company's rapid top-line revenue growth and massive addressable marketaddressable marketAddressable market is the portion of the broader market that a business can realistically target with its offering, geography, and distribution.View full glossary entry, often treating the path to profitability as a guaranteed outcome of software-scale leverage. However, a parallel, more skeptical crowd narrative treats the stock as a speculative, cash-burning hybrid that is highly vulnerable to elevated interest rates. This camp views the business as a traditional, capital-intensive diagnostic laboratory that has inflated its valuation by attaching a trendy label to its operations.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The core information gap lies in the market's misclassification of the company's business model and strategic moat. While the crowd evaluates the asset either as a standard diagnostic lab or a cyclical software stock vulnerable to macro headwindsmacro headwindsBroad economic conditions that can slow growth, weaken demand, or pressure asset valuations.View full glossary entry, the variant perceptionvariant perceptionAn investment view that differs from market consensus and assumes future outcomes will be better or worse than widely expected.View full glossary entry recognizes that the physical diagnostics division is actually a subsidized customer acquisition funnel designed to build an unassailable, multi-modal clinical dataset. This proprietary data is structurally insulated from economic downturns and heavily protected by domestic policy mandates like the BIOSECURE Actbiosecure actBiosecure Act refers to legislation aimed at limiting reliance on certain biotechnology suppliers or data-linked firms for national security reasons.View full glossary entry. As US pharmaceutical companies are forced to onshore their data pipelines, this dataset transitions from a discretionary tool to a mandatory national security asset. The market is mispricing the inevitability of the operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry that will occur when high-margin data licensing outpaces physical lab costs.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? The primary catalyst to force convergence is the company achieving structurally positive free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry, which would definitively dismantle the bearish thesis of terminal shareholder dilution. This financial inflection is expected to be driven by the high-margin Data and Applications segment outgrowing the physical diagnostics division in absolute gross profit contribution. Additionally, securing a landmark multi-billion-dollar enterprise partnership with a major pharmaceutical giant or obtaining significant pricing uplifts from regulatory approvals will accelerate this transition. Once positive cash generation is established, the market will be forced to re-rate the asset from a speculative biotech hybrid to a high-margin enterprise software platform.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Mixed
- Volatility
- High Erratic
- Cycle position
- Growing Awareness
Sentiment is highly polarized. Bulls emphasize accelerating momentum and growing awareness of the data moatdata moatA durable competitive advantage created by proprietary, difficult-to-replicate, or continuously improving data.View full glossary entry, while bears point to a potential reversal or overshoot, citing heavy insider selling, short-seller allegations, and the hostile high-rate environment as key drivers of near-term volatility.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic regimemacroeconomic regimeThe prevailing set of economic conditions including interest rates and inflation that influence asset pricing.View full glossary entry presents a highly bifurcated setup for the asset. On one hand, the restrictive monetary environment, characterized by higher-for-longer interest rates and tight liquidity, acts as a severe headwind for valuation multiples, heavily discounting the company's long-duration future cash flows and exposing its leveraged balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry. On the other hand, the geopolitical regime of supply-chain decoupling and domestic protectionism, exemplified by the BIOSECURE Actbiosecure actBiosecure Act refers to legislation aimed at limiting reliance on certain biotechnology suppliers or data-linked firms for national security reasons.View full glossary entry, serves as a massive structural tailwind. This political environment forces US biopharma capital into secure, domestic data ecosystems, effectively shielding the company's fundamental business operations from broader macroeconomic deterioration.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary disagreement across reports centers on the valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry and the timeline to profitability. Bullish perspectives emphasize the rapid growth of the high-margin data segment and argue that operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry will quickly extinguish the cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry, justifying a premium software multiplesoftware multipleA valuation premium often applied to software businesses due to recurring revenue and scalability.View full glossary entry. Conversely, bearish reports focus on the capital-intensive nature of the physical diagnostic labs, arguing that the business is being mispriced as a SaaSsoftware as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.View full glossary entry company. There is also significant debate regarding the severity of regulatory privacy liabilities and whether insider selling signals structural weakness or routine diversification.
Base-Case Forces
Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Biological Data Moatdata moatA durable competitive advantage created by proprietary, difficult-to-replicate, or continuously improving data.View full glossary entry | Competitive Positioning | +45% | +50% | The company's un-replicable multimodal clinical and genomic dataset forms a powerful network effectnetwork effectA phenomenon where a product gains value as more users join the platform.View full glossary entry. As AI models shift toward precision medicine, pharmaceutical companies rely heavily on this structured data for drug discovery. The BIOSECURE Actbiosecure actBiosecure Act refers to legislation aimed at limiting reliance on certain biotechnology suppliers or data-linked firms for national security reasons.View full glossary entry further strengthens this moat by isolating foreign competitors, forcing domestic biopharma to route R&D through secure domestic infrastructure, ensuring long-term pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry and customer lock-in. |
| Gross Margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry Operating Leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry | Operational Efficiency | +35% | +45% | The rapid scaling of the high-margin Data and Applications segment is driving a structural mix-shift. Gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry have expanded toward 70%, demonstrating classic technology platform operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry. As high fixed R&D and initial data-ingestion costs are amortized against a growing recurring revenuerecurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage.View full glossary entry base, the transition from operating losses to positive free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry is expected to accelerate. |
| Agentic AIagentic aiAutonomous artificial intelligence systems capable of performing complex tasks and decision-making without constant human intervention.View full glossary entry and Product Innovation | Innovation And Product | +25% | +30% | The launch of advanced platforms like 'Lens' shifts the company from static data licensing to active, autonomous AI modeling for clinical trials and biomarker discovery. This innovation allows biopharma clients to compress drug development timelines, enabling the company to command premium, high-margin SaaSsoftware as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.View full glossary entry revenues and deeply integrate into client workflows, which drives long-term contract value. |
| BIOSECURE Actbiosecure actBiosecure Act refers to legislation aimed at limiting reliance on certain biotechnology suppliers or data-linked firms for national security reasons.View full glossary entry Regulatory Tailwind | Regulatory | +20% | +25% | Federal legislation targeting Chinese genomic competitors creates a protected domestic market. US biopharma and research institutions are structurally rotating capital away from foreign service providers toward compliant domestic platforms. This regulatory shift acts as a state-sponsored demand funnel, securing domestic market share and pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry over the long term, shielding the company from low-cost overseas competition. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistent Cash Burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry and Refinancing Riskrefinancing riskThe danger that a company cannot replace maturing debt obligations with new financing under favorable terms.View full glossary entry | Capital Allocation | -35% | -25% | Despite strong top-line growth, the company continues to run a deep free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry deficit. Operating in a restrictive monetary regimemonetary regimeThe prevailing framework of central-bank policy, interest rates, money creation, and exchange-rate management.View full glossary entry with elevated capital costs makes this cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry a severe liability. If the path to profitability is delayed, the company faces punitive refinancing costsrefinancing costsIncreased interest expenses incurred when rolling over existing debt at higher market rates.View full glossary entry or highly dilutive equity raisesdilutive equity raisesIssuing new shares to fund operations, which reduces the ownership percentage of existing shareholders.View full glossary entry to sustain operations, which limits near-term equity upside. |
| Warsh Rate Regime Multiple Compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -25% | -5.0% | Persistent higher-for-longer interest rates act as a relentless gravitational drag on long-duration growth equities. Because the bulk of the company's intrinsic valueintrinsic valueThe estimated true worth of a business or asset based on fundamentals instead of short-term market mood.View full glossary entry lies in cash flows projected years into the future, elevated discount rates mechanically compress the valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry, leaving no margin of safetymargin of safetyThe difference between an estimated intrinsic value and the purchase price, intended to allow for uncertainty or analytical error.View full glossary entry for operational execution errors and limiting multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry. |
| Regulatory and Privacy Litigation Liabilities | Regulatory | -20% | -15% | The acquisition of genetic testing assets has exposed the company to class-action lawsuits under state privacy acts and regulatory scrutiny over unauthorized data monetization. These legal challenges threaten the fundamental legality of the secondary data-licensing engine, potentially imposing massive compliance costscompliance costsExpenses incurred to understand, implement, monitor, and document compliance with laws, regulations, or standards.View full glossary entry and restricting data-sharing pipelines, which could severely damage the core business model. |
| Egregious Stock-Based Compensation and DilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry | Management And Governance | -15% | -20% | Heavy reliance on stock-based compensation to attract talent acts as a persistent drag on per-share value. This aggressive dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry masks true underlying operating costs and frustrates institutional investors seeking capital disciplinecapital disciplineA consistent practice of funding only investments expected to meet defined return and risk thresholds.View full glossary entry. Synchronized insider selling further signals a potential lack of internal conviction in the current valuation, creating a persistent overhang on the stock price. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Exposure category | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existential Liquidity and Refinancing Crisis | 30% | -55% | Capital Allocation | If the company burns through its cash reserves before achieving free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry escape velocityescape velocityA point at which growth or adoption becomes sufficiently self-sustaining to continue without the same level of external support.View full glossary entry, and credit markets remain hostile, it may face a toxic refinancing event. This would force highly dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry issuances at trough valuations, permanently destroying shareholder value and forcing a severe downward repricing of the equity. |
| Open-Source Biological Model Displacement | 20% | -45% | Innovation And Product | A consortium of tech giants or open-source advocates could release a free, highly capable biological foundation model that bypasses the company's proprietary structuring moat. This technological shift would commoditize genomic AI capabilities, destroying the company's pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry and software margins, reducing the platform to a low-margin data broker. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Exposure category | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Mega-Pharma Acquisition | 20% | +45% | Competitive Positioning | A top-tier pharmaceutical giant or technology hyperscaler, desperate to secure a monopoly on proprietary clinical-genomic data for AI drug discovery, could launch a buyout at a massive premium. This would instantly capitalize the terminal valueterminal valueThe present value of all future cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period.View full glossary entry of the data moatdata moatA durable competitive advantage created by proprietary, difficult-to-replicate, or continuously improving data.View full glossary entry and bypass public-market duration discounting, delivering an immediate windfall to existing shareholders. |
| FDA AI-Diagnostic Mandate | 15% | +35% | Regulatory | Regulatory bodies could formally mandate the company's advanced AI-driven genomic profiling as a prerequisite for administering high-cost targeted therapies. This would transform the platform from a competitive advantage into a statutory requirement, locking in utility-like recurring revenues across the healthcare system and driving massive, un-modeled revenue growth. |
Company Financial Analysis
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Jul 05, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
The company is experiencing explosive sales growth, with annual revenues climbing rapidly, driven by its high-margin data and software segment. However, its bottom-line profits remain deeply negative, with substantial net losses and ongoing cash burn. Analysts agree that the company's future depends on its ability to transition from a cash-burning business to a self-sustaining, profitable enterprise. The main point of disagreement is how quickly this transition will happen. Optimistic views suggest that as the high-margin software business grows, it will easily cover the fixed costs of the physical testing labs, leading to profitability by 2028. Skeptics, however, warn that the heavy costs of running physical laboratories and high stock-based compensation will keep the company unprofitable for much longer, making the stock highly risky in a high-interest-rate environment where investors demand real earnings over future promises.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.3B | USD -245M | USD -239.1M |
| 2024 | USD 693.4M | USD -705.8M | USD -211.2M |
| 2023 | USD 531.8M | USD -214.1M | USD -248.9M |
| 2022 | USD 320.7M | USD -289.8M | USD -186.6M |
| 2021 | USD 257.9M | USD -259.2M | USD -223.8M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2021 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
The company's profit margins show a striking contrast between its raw product costs and its overall business expenses. Gross margins, which measure the basic profitability of its services, have expanded beautifully to around seventy percent. This indicates that the core data-licensing business is highly profitable and has strong pricing power. However, operating and net margins remain deeply negative because of massive spending on research, sales, and executive stock compensation. The consensus is that margins will improve as high-margin software sales become a larger part of the business. However, opinions clash on whether the company can trim its heavy overhead costs. Bulls believe operating margins will turn positive within a few years as the business scales, while bears argue that the high costs of running physical labs and generous executive pay will permanently weigh down profitability, making the current high valuation hard to justify.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -238.6M | -18.8% | -19.3% |
| 2024 | USD -691.1M | -99.7% | -101.8% |
| 2023 | USD -196.1M | -36.9% | -40.3% |
| 2022 | USD -265.4M | -82.8% | -90.4% |
| 2021 | USD -243.7M | -94.5% | -100.5% |
Balance sheet and leverage
The company's balance sheet presents a mix of near-term safety and long-term risk. On the positive side, it holds a substantial cash cushion of over six hundred million dollars, which provides a temporary buffer to fund its ongoing operations. However, the company also carries a massive debt load of over one billion dollars, resulting in a very high debt-to-equity ratio. Analysts agree that this heavy leverage makes the company highly vulnerable. If the company cannot stop burning cash before its current reserves run out, it will be forced to borrow more money at high interest rates or issue new shares, which would dilute the value of existing investments. While some believe the cash buffer is plenty of runway to reach profitability, others view the high debt as a ticking clock that leaves no room for operational mistakes or economic downturns.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.3B | USD 755M | USD 722.3M net debt | 3.13x |
| 2024 | USD 468.1M | USD 448.3M | USD 127.1M net debt | 2.29x |
| 2023 | USD 488.1M | USD 197.6M | USD 322.4M net debt | 1.51x |
| 2022 | USD 433M | USD 302.9M | USD 130.1M net debt | 2.52x |
| 2021 | USD 238.9M | USD 277.7M | USD 38.7M net cash | 3.52x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
The company requires heavy spending to build and maintain its competitive edge, but the nature of this spending is a point of debate. On one hand, it operates physical, high-tech laboratories and invests heavily in research and development to gather and organize patient data. Optimists view this heavy upfront spending as a smart, long-term investment that builds an unassailable database, which can eventually be licensed to drug companies at almost zero ongoing cost. They note that capital spending as a percentage of revenue is actually declining, showing increased efficiency. On the other hand, critics argue that this high investment intensity is a permanent burden rather than a one-time cost. They warn that keeping up with rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and genetic sequencing will force the company to continuously spend massive amounts on technology, draining cash and delaying the timeline to positive cash flow.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 21M | USD 146.1M |
| 2024 | USD 22.1M | USD 316.8M |
| 2023 | USD 34.6M | USD 185.5M |
| 2022 | USD 18.4M | USD 162.3M |
| 2021 | USD 11.8M | USD 128.4M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Timeline | Bear Case Stock Price (USD) | Base Case Stock Price (USD) | Bull Case Stock Price (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48.22 | $57.56 | $69.31 | $736.09 | |
| $40.98 | $58.29 | $74.86 | $724.14 | |
| $34.84 | $59.96 | $82.34 | $713.57 | |
| $29.61 | $60.85 | $78.22 | $723.38 | |
| $27.59 | $61.92 | $87.61 | $716.61 | |
| $22.62 | $66.39 | $100.75 | $738.34 | |
| $23.76 | $69.82 | $108.81 | $746.91 | |
| $24.71 | $71.36 | $100.11 | $771.93 | |
| $18.53 | $74.01 | $110.12 | $782.73 | |
| $21.31 | $80.42 | $126.64 | $807.31 | |
| $19.18 | $84.36 | $139.30 | $822.72 | |
| $20.71 | $86.72 | $146.26 | $846.10 | |
| $21.13 | $89.87 | $137.49 | $852.53 | |
| $22.18 | $96.62 | $156.71 | $882.91 | |
| $21.07 | $100.72 | $166.31 | $900.46 | |
| $21.49 | $104.89 | $174.62 | $922.67 | |
| $20.85 | $104.95 | $183.66 | $935.91 | |
| $22.10 | $112.55 | $198.35 | $952.30 | |
| $22.10 | $117.22 | $208.27 | $976.28 | |
| $22.10 | $123.55 | $220.76 | $1,002 |
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 12
- AI Researchers
- 7
- AI Thinkers
- 5
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.8K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market Context through 2026-05-31
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-05-31
- File size
- 78K bytes
- Words
- 10.9K words
- Characters
- 78K characters
This year-to-date package described the geopolitical, macroeconomic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and cross-asset developments available through the batch knowledge cutoff of 2026-05-31.
It supplied dated market and policy context, including rates, sovereign yields, equities, foreign exchange, energy, metals, and digital assets, for the forecast generation workflow.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| The Iran and Strait of Hormuz conflict shocked energy markets | 2026-02-28 | STARTED AND ONGOING |
| U.S. monetary policy entered the Warsh transition | 2026-01-30 | STARTED AND ACTIVE POLICY TRANSITION |
| Agentic AI and infrastructure spending kept expanding | 2026-01-01 | OPEN ENDED |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
34 fieldscostOfRevenue · currency_symbol · date · depreciationAndAmortization · +30 more fields
Balance sheet
64 fieldsaccountsPayable · accumulatedAmortization · accumulatedDepreciation · accumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncome · +60 more fields
Cash flow
32 fieldsbeginPeriodCashFlow · capitalExpenditures · cashAndCashEquivalentsChanges · cashFlowsOtherOperating · +28 more fields
Outstanding shares
4 fieldsdate · dateFormatted · shares · sharesMln
annual: 2020-01-01–2026-01-01, 7 periods; quarterly: 2023-06-30–2026-03-31, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).