Model diversity and explained consensus weights
Batch 7 compares matched researcher configurations across three model families and introduces explained per-opinion synthesizer weights. Averaged and synthesized consensus remain separately inspectable.
- Completed forecasts
- 5,964
- Covered assets
- 426
- Pipeline lineage
- Governed individual opinions, weighted synthesis and separate quantitative rankings
- Output contract
- Individual schema v10 with richer research fields; seo_geo_synthesis_v7 with explained opinion weights
Generation capability record
Governed world-state context accompanies the individual forecasts.
Currency-normalized fundamentals for eligible equities.
The synthesizer assigns explained per-opinion weights; Python calculates and compounds the weighted quarterly returns.
Portfolio simulations use the frozen original quantitative leaderboard, separate from the synthesized forecast path.
Separate editorial publication approval remains downstream of forecasts and rankings.
Matched Universal Investor researcher configuration across Flash, Opus and Astra; each asset has 12 Flash, one Opus and one Astra opinion.
Blinded opinion identities support lower or zero weights for weak claims and higher weights for supported insights. Weights are normalized and the complete source path is frozen.
Introduced before this run
- Compare three model families using the same researcher framework.
- Replace equal opinion contribution in the synthesized path with explained, normalized judgment weights.
- Preserve both averaged and synthesized consensus; weighting remains experimental and does not establish better accuracy.
Learned after this run
- Judgment weights can reduce the contribution of weak reasoning, but accuracy gains require subsequent evaluation.
- Model diversity and framework diversity are separate comparisons.
- Keep averaged consensus, synthesized paths and quantitative portfolio rankings distinct.
Model and persona configuration
Gemini 3.8 Flash, Claude Opus 5 and GPT-6 Astra
14 opinions per asset: 12 Gemini Flash configurations plus matched Opus and Astra researchers
The synthesizer sees blinded opinion identities and investment frameworks. It assigns weights and rationales; Python calculates quarterly weighted returns and compounds them. The portfolio track record uses the frozen original quantitative leaderboard, not these synthesized prices.