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Stryker
Health Care · Health Care Equipment

Medical technology company offering innovative products and services in orthopedics, medical and surgical equipment, and neurotechnology.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

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Historical AI Opinions

Stryker Corporation (SYK.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

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Updated on 3 May 2026Deep analysis 3 May 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
AI ResearcherAdvisor config deprecated
Machiavelli AI advisor icon
Gemini 3 Pro

Machiavelli AI

The Insider Framework

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+115.9%

Includes 0.89% annual net dividend contribution

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.152.95277.32401.69526.05650.42Apr 2021Oct 2023Apr 2026Oct 2028May 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
Quarterly Events ForecastPrice targets, total returns and complete scenario reasoning

Forecast prices in USD. Returns are cumulative from the forecast anchor. Swipe horizontally to read every column.

QuarterForecastTotal returnScenario
$309+5.0%
  • Market realization that the $450M Defense Logistics Agency contract is insulated from the Hormuz oil shock.
  • Institutional positioning rotates back into the asset, recognizing the massive oversold conditions of the Q2 panic.
  • Lobbying infrastructure mitigates immediate legislative threats to medical device pricing.
$328+11.3%
  • Q3 earnings reveal that Mako consumable volumes remained inelastic, forcing hospitals to absorb resin cost pass-throughs.
  • The alpha gap begins to close aggressively as the sell-side upgrades the stock back to a protected-monopoly multiple.
  • Distressed M&A rumors surface as smaller competitors fail under the Warsh rate regime.
$341+15.8%
  • The strong dollar translation drag trims international earnings, but ruthless operational discipline masks the organic weakness.
  • Executive-driven share buybacks are executed to ensure per-share targets are met for bonus structures.
  • CMS announces preliminary reimbursement pathways highly favorable to Stryker's neurotechnology portfolio.
$358+21.5%
  • Stryker announces a highly accretive acquisition of a distressed surgical robotics startup, blessed by a lenient FTC.
  • Federal supply schedules are renewed without DOGE interference, confirming the durability of the political moat.
  • Helium supply chains begin to normalize, easing margin pressure on the imaging division.
$369+25.2%
  • Summer seasonality and lingering European hospital budget constraints mildly slow top-line momentum.
  • Integration costs from the recent distressed M&A hit the income statement, temporarily clouding free cash flow.
  • Defensive institutional inflows provide a solid floor against broader macroeconomic volatility.
$384+30.2%
  • Hospital capex cycles systematically re-accelerate as the energy shock fades into the rearview mirror.
  • Mako placements surge domestically, resetting the baseline for future high-margin consumable sales.
  • Tariff protections fully shield Stryker from a new wave of low-cost Asian orthopedic imports.
$403+36.7%
  • FY27 earnings highlight absolute pricing power; Stryker passes 100% of residual inflation onto captive hospital networks.
  • CEO compensation targets trigger a new, aggressive authorization for share repurchases.
  • VA contracting volumes expand as aging veteran demographics force increased federal healthcare outlays.
$415+40.8%
  • Minor friction from ongoing shareholder revolts regarding opaque political contributions distracts the board.
  • The strong dollar regime persists, requiring costly currency hedges to protect European profit margins.
  • Steady domestic orthopedic volume growth offsets the international headwinds.
$432+46.4%
  • Lobbying efforts secure long-term protection for elevated Medicare reimbursement rates on joint replacements.
  • The acquired robotics IP is successfully integrated into the MedSurg portfolio, driving a new product supercycle.
  • The stock benefits from a flight-to-quality rotation as tech sector hype cools.
$449+52.3%
  • Q3 earnings demonstrate massive cash generation from the locked-in Mako consumable ecosystem.
  • Defense Logistics Agency expands patient monitoring orders to outfit new strategic military installations.
  • Analysts universally capitulate to the 'regulated monopoly' thesis, upgrading price targets.
$462+56.9%
  • High base effects from previous quarters slow the apparent rate of growth, inducing minor profit-taking.
  • Regulatory scrutiny slightly increases as populist political rhetoric targets healthcare costs, though lobbying defuses actual legislation.
  • Dividend hikes are utilized to maintain investor loyalty amidst the noise.
$481+63.1%
  • Another bolt-on acquisition in the neurotechnology space reinforces Stryker's dominance in high-acuity surgery.
  • Favorable demographic trends in the US provide an unstoppable demographic tailwind for orthopedic implants.
  • Margin expansion resumes as automated manufacturing efficiencies come online.
$490+66.4%
  • Global supply chains experience localized disruptions in critical minerals, temporarily tightening titanium availability.
  • Stryker leans on its massive strategic inventory to fulfill contracts while smaller rivals default.
  • Price action remains muted as the market digests the supply chain risk.
$505+71.4%
  • Stryker successfully passes the increased titanium costs onto hospital networks, preserving gross margins.
  • The federal supply schedule is expanded to include the latest iteration of automated triage equipment.
  • Institutional ownership concentration reaches peak levels, reducing market float and supporting the share price.
$525+78.2%
  • FY29 results showcase a flawless execution of the 'razor and razorblade' model across the expanded robotics install base.
  • Long-term incentive plans for executives mature, ensuring that balance sheet cash is aggressively deployed to support the stock.
  • The Alpha Gap identified in 2026 has been entirely closed.
$541+83.6%
  • A stabilizing global currency environment finally provides relief from the relentless dollar translation drag.
  • International sales growth accelerates, providing a secondary engine for top-line expansion.
  • M&A pipeline is restocked, signaling future consolidation phases.
$552+87.3%
  • Market rotation shifts capital toward newer innovation sectors, leaving mature medtech names slightly range-bound.
  • Routine antitrust noise emerges from a newly seated regulatory administration, but Stryker's legal moat holds firm.
  • Steady dividends and buybacks maintain the valuation floor.
$568+92.9%
  • Next-generation AI-assisted surgical navigation systems are approved by the FDA, driving a new upgrade cycle for hospitals.
  • CMS immediately adopts favorable reimbursement codes for the AI platform, proving the lobbying machine remains unmatched.
  • Earnings multiple expands on the AI integration narrative.
$591+100.6%
  • Exceptional Q4 2030 performance as the AI upgrade cycle proves highly inelastic and resistant to hospital budget constraints.
  • The DoD signs a massive, decade-long modernization contract for Stryker's field-deployable medical units.
  • The stock hits new all-time highs as the federal revenue baseline grows.
$609+106.6%
  • Entering the back half of the decade, Stryker stands unchallenged as a politically fortified medtech monopoly.
  • Cash flow generation is mechanical, and the threat of startup disruption is neutralized via perpetual tuck-in M&A.
  • The five-year thesis concludes with the asset thoroughly vindicating the power-audit framework.
ADVISOR CONFIGURATION DEPRECATED

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The Base Case projects Stryker recovering forcefully from its macro-induced Q2 2026 collapse, leveraging its federal contract moat and regulatory capture to drive a +37% total return over the five-year horizon. While resin inflation and strong-dollar translation drag will temporarily impair gross margins, Stryker's absolute pricing power over locked-in hospital networks ensures that these costs are aggressively passed through to the buyer. The equity will steadily reclaim its pre-shock valuation as the market remembers this is a protected monopoly, not a cyclical manufacturer.

  • Federal baseload revenue ($600M+ via DLA/VA) provides an immediate floor against further equity downside.
  • CMS lobbying ensures 2027-2028 reimbursement rates artificially inflate Stryker's stroke and neurotech margins.
  • High switching costs on the Mako platform force hospitals to absorb consumable price hikes despite energy stress.
  • Distressed M&A under a lenient FTC allows Stryker to capture emerging surgical robotics verticals cheaply.
  • Executive compensation heavily skewed toward equity guarantees aggressive stock buybacks to engineer per-share metrics.
  • A persistent strong dollar remains the primary friction, capping international growth but reinforcing domestic dominance.

2. Scenarios & Signals

2.1. Bull Case

The Bull Case envisions Stryker not merely surviving the geopolitical chaos, but weaponizing it. Accelerated DoD triage contracts and ruthless distressed M&A supercharge the balance sheet. With competitors suffocating under high rates, Stryker establishes a total surgical monopoly.

  • Emergency war supplementals massively expand Stryker's Defense Logistics Agency order volume.
  • The FTC waves through a hostile takeover of a distressed mid-cap robotics competitor, securing a decade of IP.
  • Resin and helium supply chains rapidly normalize via domestic reshoring, restoring peak gross margins.
  • CEO Lobo's equity incentives trigger massive, debt-funded share repurchases, crushing the float and squeezing shorts.

2.2. Bear Case

The Bear Case materializes if the political protection shielding Stryker fractures under populist scrutiny or severe supply chain collapse. The hospital margin squeeze outlasts Stryker's pricing power, stalling growth.

  • A hostile DOGE audit halts the $450 million DLA contract, destroying the federal revenue moat.
  • Adversarial nations block titanium exports, permanently crippling the high-margin orthopedic joint replacement division.
  • The strong dollar crushes European and Asian market penetration, shrinking the total addressable market.
  • Institutional ESG funds divest heavily following a scandal regarding Stryker's opaque dark-money political lobbying.

2.3. Behavioral Alpha Signals

Sentiment, repricing cycle, crowd narrative, catalyst, and macro alignment.

Expected Volatility Regime

LowModerateHighExtreme

Greed and Fear Index

-100 Fear0+100 Greed
-40

Cycle Position

Few investors are aware of the thesis.

EarlyAwareMomentumOvershootReversalCapit.StabilizeEARLY DISCOVERY
Figure: Advisor position within the seven-stage market-recognition cycle. The highlighted point marks Early Discovery.

What does Media Tell? (Crowd Consensus)

The noisy market currently believes Stryker is a tragic casualty of the Hormuz energy shock and hospital capex freezes. Analysts are obsessing over the spike in polyethylene packaging costs, the Qatari helium squeeze affecting medical imaging, and the Warsh-driven strong dollar crushing foreign revenue translation. The consensus treats the 23 percent price collapse since February 2026 as a warranted, structural downgrade, anchoring entirely to the assumption that squeezed hospital operating margins will permanently delay Mako robotic installations and elective surgical volumes.

What Crowds Get Wrong? (Alpha/Value Gap)

The crowd fundamentally misclassifies Stryker as a discretionary capex vendor vulnerable to hospital margin compression. The Insider variant perception maps Stryker as a quasi-defense contractor and regulatory cartel. With a $450 million Defense Logistics Agency IDV and a $201 million VA Federal Supply Schedule, its baseload revenue is completely insulated from macroeconomic cycles. Furthermore, Stryker's relentless lobbying machine literally authors the CMS reimbursement pathways. Hospitals do not choose to buy Stryker; they are algorithmically coerced by the reimbursement architecture. The margin compression from resins is real, but this power dynamic allows Stryker to pass 100 percent of the cost to the provider. The recent 23 percent drawdown is a structural mispricing.

When will Value Gap Repricing Happen? (Repricing Catalyst)

The Q3 2026 earnings delivery. Management will reveal that federal IDV drawdowns and inelastic Mako consumable volumes successfully absorbed the resin and helium inflation, proving Stryker's absolute pricing power. This undeniable cash flow validation will force the sell-side to capitulate and re-rate the stock back to its protected-monopoly multiple.

How is Asset Influenced by Macro Regime?

The Warsh Sound Money and high-rate regime is a dual-edged sword. It severely punishes highly leveraged emerging medtech competitors, creating distressed M&A targets for Stryker's fortress balance sheet. However, the associated strong dollar acts as a persistent headwind for international revenue translation. Domestically, the energy shock favors companies with absolute pricing power over captive government and hospital budgets.

3. Positive & Negative Factors, Risks & Opportunities

3.1. Base-Case Forces

Near-certain positive forces

Top Drivers / Tailwinds

Structural or operating forces that support this advisor thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence).

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Top Drivers / Tailwinds with asset-specific estimated impacts and thesis rationale
Driver / TailwindCategoryEst. stock-price impactEst. earnings impactWhy it matters
MAKO Capital LOCK INCompetitive Positioning+20%Not quantifiedThe Mako robotic surgery system is a masterclass in capital lock-in and vendor capture. Once a hospital system commits millions of dollars to install Mako hardware and trains its surgical staff on the proprietary interface, the switching costs become prohibitive. This transforms the hospital into a captive client for Stryker's high-margin orthopedic implants. The power dynamic shifts entirely from the buyer to the seller. Even during severe macro shocks, such as the Hormuz energy crisis, hospitals cannot afford to abandon their sunken capital investments. They are forced to absorb Stryker's price hikes on consumables. This parasitic pricing power guarantees durable cash flows and acts as a massive competitive moat, directly driving sustained equity appreciation over the five-year horizon.
CMS Pathway CaptureRegulatory+15%Not quantifiedStryker does not merely innovate; it writes the rules of the game. Disclosing over $260,000 in quarterly lobbying spend, the company specifically targets Medicare extenders, stroke pathways, and reimbursement codes. This is classic regulatory capture. By shaping CMS payment models, Stryker ensures that its proprietary neurotechnology and orthopedic systems are not discretionary purchases, but federally reimbursed mandates. When the government effectively subsidizes the purchase of your product, your pricing power becomes absolute. This lobbying moat is impenetrable to startups who cannot afford to buy access in Washington. The resulting reimbursement architecture guarantees long-term institutional purchasing volume, shielding Stryker from the volatility of hospital operating budgets and ensuring persistent upward price pressure on the stock.
Federal Contract MOATPolitical And Geopolitical+12%Not quantifiedStryker is not merely a commercial medical device vendor; it is a structurally protected federal contractor. Holding a $450 million Defense Logistics Agency IDV for patient monitoring and a $201 million VA Federal Supply Schedule contract, the company possesses a guaranteed, non-cyclical revenue stream entirely immune to civilian hospital margin squeezes or consumer macroeconomic shocks. This is government-subsidized baseload cash flow at its finest. The political power structure here is exceptionally durable: defense and veteran healthcare spending is politically sacrosanct and highly resistant to standard federal budget cuts. This creates a permanent revenue floor that stabilizes the equity during broader market panics, allowing insiders to rely on federal capital while civilian competitors starve during the current energy and inflation crises.
Equity Driven EXEC IncentivesManagement And Governance+10%Not quantifiedPower follows the money, and Stryker's executive compensation architecture is ruthlessly aligned with share price inflation. CEO Kevin Lobo's $21.4 million compensation package in 2025 was overwhelmingly equity-based, with over $16.6 million concentrated in stock and option awards. When insiders hold this level of concentrated equity risk, their entire strategic focus shifts to financial engineering, aggressive share repurchases, and accretive M&A designed to maximize per-share metrics. This is not about altruistic healthcare; it is about wealth extraction. Shareholders can confidently ride the coattails of this self-interested governance structure. The executive suite will sacrifice long-term R&D for immediate margin expansion and buybacks if necessary, creating a persistent, mechanically enforced upward drift in the stock price.

Near-certain negative forces

Top Frictions / Headwinds

Expected frictions that can slow, cap, or damage this advisor thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence).

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Top Frictions / Headwinds with asset-specific estimated impacts and thesis rationale
Friction / HeadwindCategoryEst. stock-price impactEst. earnings impactWhy it matters
Massive Insider LiquidationManagement And Governance-8.0%Not quantifiedThe truest signal of internal anxiety is the insider money trail. In late 2025, Board member Ronda Stryker executed massive liquidations, dumping 720,000 shares for approximately $259 million. When the founding family aggressively offloads equity while issuing optimistic forward guidance, the cold analyst believes the selling, not the press release. This magnitude of insider distribution suggests a structural awareness that peak valuation has been reached or that undisclosed headwinds are materializing. Institutional whales like Corient and UBS followed suit, clearing massive positions. This information asymmetry indicates that the smart money is exiting before the retail crowd realizes the macro environment has shifted, creating a heavy, persistent drag on the equity's momentum.
Hormuz Petrochemical SqueezeMacroeconomic And Macrofinancial-7.0%Not quantifiedThe geopolitical reality of the Strait of Hormuz closure has triggered a severe structural shock to global petrochemical and helium supply chains. Stryker's MedSurg division is heavily dependent on medical-grade plastics for sterile consumables, packaging, and single-use surgical tools. Simultaneously, the Qatari helium squeeze directly threatens the manufacturing and operation of advanced medical imaging components. These are non-substitutable inputs. As raw material costs skyrocket, Stryker faces a painful margin contraction. While they possess pricing power, the lag in renegotiating multi-year hospital contracts means the company must temporarily absorb these inflationary blows. This supply chain vulnerability destroys the illusion of absolute operational control and enforces a sustained discount on the stock.
Hospital Margin ContractionSector And Industry-6.0%Not quantifiedThe cascading effects of the 2026 energy shock are devouring hospital operating margins. Confronted with surging utility costs, labor shortages, and broader supply inflation, healthcare networks are unilaterally freezing capital expenditures. Stryker's high-ticket robotic systems and advanced surgical theater upgrades are the first items to be deferred in a defensive budget cycle. While consumables provide a baseline, the high-margin growth engine relies on these massive capital equipment placements. The macro-induced starvation of hospital budgets creates a structural barrier to revenue growth. The market incorrectly assumes healthcare demand is perfectly inelastic; the reality is that the institutions paying the bills are currently insolvent, dragging down Stryker's volume growth.
Strong Dollar Translation DRAGMacroeconomic And Macrofinancial-5.0%Not quantifiedThe Warsh Fed has ushered in a brutal regime of high interest rates and dollar supremacy. For a multinational powerhouse like Stryker, this macroeconomic posture is a direct assault on the income statement. A structurally stronger dollar acts as a massive headwind for international revenue translation, instantly eroding the reported value of overseas sales in Europe and Asia without a single change in underlying volume. This currency friction cannot be fully hedged away without exorbitant derivative costs. The macro regime actively penalizes Stryker's global expansion thesis, forcing the company to rely disproportionately on the domestic US market to meet consensus earnings targets, thereby capping the stock's upside potential.

3.2. Risks & Opportunities

Plausible downside scenarios

Tail Risks

Less likely downside scenarios that could materially hurt the outcome if they occur.

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Tail risks with plausibility, asset-specific potential impact and scenario rationale
Tail scenarioChance of OccurringStock Price ImpactWhy plausible / what changes
Federal Supply Schedule Suspension10%-25%Triggered by a hostile DOGE audit or whistleblower revelation exposing systematic overbilling within Stryker's $450 million Defense Logistics Agency or VA contracts. The administration, eager for a populist victory against corporate contractors, immediately suspends Stryker's federal supply schedules. This instantly destroys the company's most durable cash-flow moat, triggering a massive institutional selloff as the market realizes the protected national champion has suddenly become a political pariah.
Titanium Export Blockade15%-20%Triggered by a coordinated geopolitical retaliation from adversarial nations blocking the export of medical-grade titanium and rare-earth materials critical to Stryker's orthopedic implants. Unable to source alternative raw materials quickly, Stryker's highest-margin joint replacement division suffers an immediate production halt. The resulting failure to fulfill hospital contracts permanently damages the Mako ecosystem lock-in, forcing analysts to radically downgrade long-term revenue projections as the supply chain proves fundamentally compromised.

Plausible upside scenarios

Tail Opportunities

Less likely upside scenarios that could materially improve the outcome if they occur.

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Tail opportunities with plausibility, asset-specific potential impact and scenario rationale
Tail scenarioChance of OccurringStock Price ImpactWhy plausible / what changes
Distressed Competitor Takeover25%+18%Triggered by a protracted high-rate environment that bankrupts a highly leveraged, innovative mid-cap robotics or neurotechnology competitor. Stryker executes a predatory buyout at pennies on the dollar. Under a deregulated antitrust regime, the FTC waives standard monopoly concerns. Stryker seamlessly integrates the distressed IP into its captive hospital distribution network, instantly neutralizing a competitive threat and capturing entirely new, high-margin surgical verticals without the required decade of internal R&D spend.
DOD Emergency Triage Integration15%+12%Triggered by emergency congressional supplementals for the expanding Middle East and potential Caribbean theaters, the Department of Defense mandates the integration of Stryker's advanced trauma and robotic triage equipment into all front-line military protocols. This bypasses normal civilian hospital capex cycles entirely, instantly expanding Stryker's federal backlog by billions. The geopolitical necessity overriding standard procurement audits allows Stryker to command premium pricing, converting geopolitical instability into a massive, unassailable revenue surge.

5. References & Context

Search behavior, retained evidence, supplied context, and response token details.
Prompt Tokens: 72,676Thinking Tokens: 7,005Response Tokens: 6,212Total Tokens: 85,893
Researcher modeExternal search used

External web search was used. The immutable publication retained the search terms, but no source URLs were recorded.

Context supplied to the model

Public-safe inputs retained with this immutable forecast publication.

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    Market data

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    Global context in this run

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    Fundamental data in this run

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    Subject context

    Equity-specific subject and market context

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    Global context

    Standard global market and cross-asset context

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    Task framework

    Standard investment-forecast task guidelines

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    Machiavelli AI advisor icon

    Advisor framework

    Machiavelli The Insider

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    Forecast output requested

    Equity Extended Investment Thesis (4 Quadrants and Alpha Asymmetry) + Pct Change Timeseries for Close Price with Rationale, (5Y Quarterly)

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Global context snapshot

2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context

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Coverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31

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This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.

The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.

Top 3 market shifts from 2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Top 3 Market Shifts From FileDateStatus
DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset2025-01-27OPEN ENDED TREND
US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture2025-02-01ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold2025-09-17ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal ReserveUS Bureau of Labor StatisticsUS Bureau of Economic AnalysisUS TreasuryUS Energy Information AdministrationReuters WorldAssociated Press World NewsBBC World

And more sources from the retained context package.

2026 Year-to-Date Global Market Context through 2026-04-10

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Coverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-04-10 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-04-10

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This year-to-date package described the geopolitical, macroeconomic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and cross-asset developments available through the batch knowledge cutoff of 2026-04-10.

It supplied dated market and policy context, including rates, sovereign yields, equities, foreign exchange, energy, metals, and digital assets, for the forecast generation workflow.

Top 3 market shifts from 2026 Year-to-Date Global Market Context through 2026-04-10
Top 3 Market Shifts From FileDateStatus
The Iran and Strait of Hormuz conflict shocked energy markets2026-02-28STARTED AND ONGOING
U.S. monetary policy entered the Warsh transition2026-01-30STARTED AND ACTIVE POLICY TRANSITION
Agentic AI and infrastructure spending kept expanding2026-01-01OPEN ENDED

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal ReserveU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisU.S. TreasuryU.S. Energy Information AdministrationReutersAssociated PressBBC News

And more sources from the retained context package.

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Fundamental context

annual: 0 periods; quarterly: 0 periods

Currencies cited: USD (quote USD).

Search terms retained

  1. 1."Stryker" CEO Kevin Lobo compensation
  2. 2."Stryker" government contracts DOD VA
  3. 3."Stryker" antitrust FTC DOJ investigations
  4. 4."Stryker Corporation" lobbying spend 2023 2024

Search terms were retained, but this immutable publication does not contain source URLs for the run.

Original published forecast

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