AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Safran (SAF) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
BUY
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
NEUTRAL€343
+6.2%+7.0% incl. dividends5-Year
BUY€484
+49.8%+55.9% incl. dividendsLatest flagship insight
Aftermarket Engine Monopoly Cash Flow Outweighs Rich Valuation Headwinds
High consensus confirms that captive narrowbody propulsion aftermarket cash flows and expanding European defense backlogs will drive multi-year compounding. However, sharp divergence surrounds valuation multiples, where headline accounting distortions conceal premium duration risk that could compress during airline budget fatigue.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Universal Investor (Polymath), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Elon Musk (Visionary), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Michael Burry (Vulture), Machiavelli (Insider). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Safran at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $16,220 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
* Return is calculated incl. 0.8% net dividend yield for Safran.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in EUR; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (EUR) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 325.23 | +0.69% | +0.69% | Elevated jet fuel prices and high benchmark bond yields compress rich equity multiples, outweighing resilient civil aftermarket spares volume and active share repurchases as the first-half spare-engine delivery skew reverses. |
| Q1 2027 | 333.56 | +2.56% | +3.27% | Full-year financial disclosures confirm strong underlying free cash flow exceeding four billion euros. An expanded buyback tranche and raised operational targets restore institutional buying momentum, stabilizing valuation across European industrial portfolios. |
| Q2 2027 | 338.92 | +1.61% | +4.93% | Commercial flight hours expand into summer schedules, lifting CFM56 spare parts billings. Air show order visibility and initial LEAP-1B margin recognition offset ongoing sub-tier supplier casting bottlenecks and seasonal working capital build. |
| Q3 2027 | 343.01 | +1.21% | +6.20% | Macroeconomic deceleration and airline capacity discipline temper discretionary maintenance spending. Strong counter-cyclical defense deliveries of M88 turbofans provide revenue insulation, keeping price action steady despite multiple resistance near cycle highs. |
| Q4 2027 | 351.95 | +2.61% | +8.96% | European sovereign defense appropriations accelerate into year-end alongside steady airline flight-hour receipts. Moderating inflation expectations relieve duration pressure on premium multiples, supporting modest capital appreciation into the fiscal year close. |
| Q1 2028 | 363.83 | +3.37% | +12.64% | Full-year results confirm operating profit advancing toward landmark targets, supported by pricing power across commercial overhauls. Aggressive treasury share cancellations amplify per-share cash metrics, prompting positive sell-side earnings revisions. |
| Q2 2028 | 371.11 | +2.00% | +14.89% | Expanded maintenance facilities in Querétaro and Morocco absorb rising LEAP shop visits. While ramping original equipment engine deliveries slightly dilutes manufacturing margins, strong aftermarket cash collections sustain underlying equity gains. |
| Q3 2028 | 378.28 | +1.93% | +17.12% | Sustained high utilization of legacy narrowbody aircraft drives high-margin secondary engine overhauls. Peak summer flight cycles generate robust operational cash conversion, counteracting minor raw material alloy cost inflation across supply chains. |
| Q4 2028 | 385.04 | +1.79% | +19.21% | Achievement of multi-year operational targets and delivery of cumulative cash flow commitments validate management execution. The board authorizes a successor capital return program, prompting institutional allocators to maintain core overweight positions. |
| Q1 2029 | 395.51 | +2.72% | +22.45% | Annual financial reporting demonstrates that scaling LEAP aftermarket revenue successfully counterbalances the plateau in legacy CFM56 shop visits. Net cash balance-sheet strength provides solid valuation resilience amidst broader European economic softness. |
| Q2 2029 | 402.13 | +1.67% | +24.50% | Ground test progress on the open-fan RISE propulsion architecture reinforces terminal competitive moats. Concurrently, operational turnaround in aircraft interiors eliminates historical segment dilution, lifting group consolidated operating profitability. |
| Q3 2029 | 409.53 | +1.84% | +26.79% | Stable international passenger traffic maintains consistent utilization across active commercial fleets. Strong proprietary spare parts billing and contractual inflation indexing protect cash flow margins against rising baseline labor and engineering expenses. |
| Q4 2029 | 418.94 | +2.30% | +29.70% | Multi-year defense backlogs for Rafale fighter electronics and guided munition propulsion generate strong fourth-quarter billing. Ongoing share count reductions drive consistent per-share compounding, insulating the equity from broader market turbulence. |
| Q1 2030 | 428.89 | +2.37% | +32.78% | Annual earnings confirm recurring operating profit surpassing eight billion euros. The market absorbs the transition from legacy to modern engine services with confidence, rewarding superior return on invested capital with steady accumulation. |
| Q2 2030 | 438.79 | +2.31% | +35.85% | Maturing flight-hour agreements on young narrowbody fleets enter peak profit recognition windows. Normalized sub-tier manufacturing lead times lower working capital buffer requirements, releasing a fresh pulse of operational cash flow. |
| Q3 2030 | 445.02 | +1.42% | +37.78% | Predictable summer commercial flight cycles sustain high shop-visit throughput across global maintenance repair networks. Counter-cyclical sovereign defense revenues protect consolidated group margins from localized macroeconomic slowing in short-haul travel corridors. |
| Q4 2030 | 454.09 | +2.04% | +40.59% | Sovereign defense procurements and recurring civil services generate resilient year-end cash balances. Management outlines expanded capital distribution frameworks, prompting steady institutional buying as cash conversion consistently outperforms peer aerospace medians. |
| Q1 2031 | 464.91 | +2.38% | +43.94% | Preliminary annual disclosures confirm sustained double-digit return on equity and zero net indebtedness. Long-term commercial service contract backlogs insulate earnings from cyclical noise, supporting incremental equity accumulation among long-horizon portfolios. |
| Q2 2031 | 474.34 | +2.03% | +46.85% | Paris Air Show highlights next-generation propulsion milestones alongside new long-term service agreements. Superior aftermarket profitability and spare parts pricing power drive steady performance as the active fleet continues expanding. |
| Q3 2031 | 483.92 | +2.02% | +49.82% | Terminal horizon cash flows reflect fully matured narrowbody aftermarket contributions alongside sustained military electronics revenue. Flawless navigation of the fleet transition cements durable per-share intrinsic value at an appropriate normalized valuation multiple. |
The foundational investment case rests on an impenetrable commercial narrowbody propulsion duopoly converting into an unprecedented aftermarket cash harvest. As airframer delivery delays compel global airlines to fly legacy CFM56 airframes longer while young LEAP fleets log flight hours, captive shop-visit volumes and contractual pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry decouple cash generation from cyclical macroeconomic volatility. Simultaneously, sovereign European defense rearmament provides non-correlated, high-margin revenue visibilityrevenue visibilityHow clearly future revenue can be estimated from contracts, subscriptions, or recurring demand patterns.View full glossary entry. Valuation sensitivity remains the decisive analytical tension. Headline screening multiples of sixteen times earnings are distorted by non-cash IFRS currency hedging swings; underlying adjusted earnings trade closer to thirty-three times. A high-interest-rate regime imposes valuation duration risk, meaning total shareholder returns will depend on organic per-share cash compounding rather than speculative multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry.
Key insights
- Delayed commercial aircraft deliveries paradoxically enhance near-term cash conversion by forcing lucrative, non-discretionary shop visits on fully amortized legacy engine fleets.
- Rate-per-flight-hour contracts defer accounting profit recognition, creating an artificial near-term margin drag that converts into compounding structural annuities by late decade.
- Pristine net-cash solvency and customer advance financing insulate the balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry from refinancing shocks, enabling systematic equity retirements that accelerate per-share growth.
The company operates an indispensable tollbooth on global commercial aviation. Because airlines cannot legally fly passenger planes without certified engines and maintenance, every flight hour deposits money into its accounts. As older aircraft are flown longer and newer models enter heavy maintenance, high-margin repair services generate massive, reliable cash flows. While the stock's valuation appears expensive when accounting for foreign exchange quirks, relentless share repurchases and expanding European defense orders ensure steady, high-quality long-term growth.
Key insights
- Airline shortages of new passenger planes force carriers to pay for profitable overhauls on older engines.
- Mandatory safety rules ensure airlines must purchase proprietary replacement parts, effortlessly passing along cost inflation.
- A rock-solid balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry with negligible debt allows management to consistently retire shares and raise dividends.
Deep Dive
The market views the asset as a bulletproof aerospace winner, pricing in flawless narrowbody flight-hour expansion and an effortless transition into record maintenance profitability. Sell-side consensus anchors on raised medium-term operating profit ambitions and a deceptively low headline valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry. Investors assume airline maintenance demand is perfectly inelastic, brushing aside sub-tier casting bottlenecks, airline profitability compression from elevated jet fuel, and foreign exchange translation drag.
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Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? The market views the asset as a bulletproof aerospace winner, pricing in flawless narrowbody flight-hour expansion and an effortless transition into record maintenance profitability. Sell-side consensus anchors on raised medium-term operating profit ambitions and a deceptively low headline valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry. Investors assume airline maintenance demand is perfectly inelastic, brushing aside sub-tier casting bottlenecks, airline profitability compression from elevated jet fuel, and foreign exchange translation drag.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd modestly overestimates near-term valuation support while underestimating structural cash duration. The market falls for an optical screening error: reported net income was inflated by non-cash currency hedge revaluations, masking that clean adjusted earnings trade at a premium multiple above thirty times. However, the crowd also fails to appreciate that airframe delivery delays force airlines into highly lucrative legacy overhauls, providing an earnings bridge that offsets multiple normalization.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Consecutive financial reporting cycles through early 2027 will test operating reality against expectations. As the spare-engine delivery skew reverses and airlines digest elevated fuel expenses, reported propulsion margins will clarify underlying run-rate profitability. Proof that young engine contracts are turning cash-generative alongside steady defense execution will force consensus models to separate non-cash accounting noise from durable free cash flow conversionfree cash flow conversionThe proportion of earnings, EBITDA, or another operating measure converted into free cash flow over a specified period.View full glossary entry.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Greed
- Volatility
- Moderate
- Cycle position
- Momentum
Sentiment indicators agree that commercial flight demand and defense tailwinds drive strong operational momentum. Disagreement centers on cycle position: bullish perspectives view the aftermarket wave as early-stage discovery, whereas forensic analyses warn of valuation overshoot under high benchmark discount rates.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? Persistent central bank monetary tightness and elevated jet fuel prices create a mixed macro regimemacro regimeA persistent combination of growth, inflation, policy, and liquidity conditions affecting asset prices.View full glossary entry. Higher interest rates exert duration pressure on premium equity multiples and strain customer airline balance sheets. Conversely, non-discretionary safety certifications, contractual inflation escalators, sovereign defense rearmament spending, and a pristine net cash positionnet cash positionCash and equivalents minus total debt, providing a buffer against financial distress.View full glossary entry shield corporate operations from external credit and stagflationarystagflationAn economic condition characterized by stagnant growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.View full glossary entry shocks.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary debate centers on valuation reality versus headline reporting metrics. Bullish views argue the stock is cheap at sixteen times trailing earnings, projecting uninterrupted multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry. Forensic analyses counter that IFRS mark-to-market currency hedge adjustments created an optical accounting illusion, masking a true adjusted multiple near thirty-three times that carries severe duration risk under five-percent bond yields. Resolving this disagreement depends on monitoring second-half propulsion margins as spare-engine delivery timing normalizes and observing whether customer airlines absorb maintenance price escalations without cutting shop-visit workscopes.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreLow23/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial engine aftermarket cash tollbooth | Competitive Positioning | +28% | +36% | CFM International powers over seventy percent of global narrowbodies, capturing non-discretionary flight-hour maintenance. Delivery delays force airlines to extend legacy CFM56 operations, yielding high-margin time-and-materials shop visits while the expanding LEAP fleet enters initial overhauls. This installed baseinstalled baseThe active set of deployed products or users already in operation with existing customers.View full glossary entry extracts pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry, structurally compounding recurring cash generation over the horizon. |
| European sovereign defense rearmament surge | Sector And Industry | +17% | +20% | Geopolitical fragmentationgeopolitical fragmentationStructural shifts in global trade and policy impacting international business operations and market access.View full glossary entry and NATO procurement mandates accelerate sovereign defense orders across military optronics, guided missiles, and M88 turbofans for Dassault Rafale export contracts. Multi-year government backlogsbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry provide high-visibility, non-cyclical cash flows that insulate group profitability against civil airline volatility and elevate the corporate earnings floor. |
| Narrowbody duopoly production build ramp | Operational Efficiency | +16% | +22% | Despite persistent casting and forging chokepoints, multi-year single-aisle order backlogsorder backlogOrder backlog is the value or volume of confirmed customer orders that have not yet been delivered, fulfilled, or recognized as revenue.View full glossary entry at Airbus and Boeing drive engine assembly rates higher. Ramping original equipment deliveries expands fixed-cost absorption across propulsion hubs, while seeding thousands of additional captive powerplants for two decades of proprietary aftermarket parts consumption. |
| Disciplined self-funded share retirement compounding | Capital Allocation | +11% | +8.0% | Converting over eighty percent of operating income into free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry enables aggressive shareholder capital returnscapital returnsDistributions of capital to investors, commonly through dividends or share repurchases.View full glossary entry. Management consistently deploys multi-billion-euro share cancellation programs alongside growing dividends while preserving net cash solvency. This mechanical share count reduction compounds intrinsic per-share earnings growth, establishing a resilient floor against broader valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry compression. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated valuation duration multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -15% | -4.0% | Adjusted earnings trade near thirty-three times rather than headline screen multiples, creating duration vulnerability as central bank policy rates remain restrictive. With sovereign benchmark yields elevated, premium aerospace valuation multiples face mechanical contraction toward historical medians, dampening equity returns despite solid underlying corporate cash generation. |
| Tier-two aerospace supply chain bottleneckssupply chain bottlenecksCapacity, material, labor, transport, or coordination constraints that slow the flow of goods and inputs.View full glossary entry | Operational Efficiency | -11% | -14% | Chronic shortages across specialized titanium forgings, complex castings, and aerospace labor constrain engine delivery velocity. Upstream supplier bottlenecks force buffer inventory accumulation and risk assembly delivery penalties. This operational friction traps working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry and slows original equipment margin realization until domestic forging capacity achieves full yield. |
| Airline customer margin squeezemargin squeezePressure on profits when costs rise faster than selling prices.View full glossary entry fatigue | Sector And Industry | -9.0% | -12% | Elevated jet fuel prices and rising fleet financing expenses compress commercial airline operating profitability. In response to cash-flow strain, distressed carriers seek to defer discretionary heavy maintenance, harvest parts from grounded aircraft, or negotiate concessionary contract terms, temporarily moderating civil engine spare parts billing velocity. |
| Dollar currency hedging rollover drag | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -7.0% | -9.0% | Commercial revenues are predominantly dollar-denominated while manufacturing costs are heavily euro-based. As favorable legacy currency hedges near 1.10–1.12 EUR/USD roll off into prevailing spot corridors, foreign exchange translation presents mechanical headwinds. Mark-to-market derivative swings under IFRS continue injecting headline earnings volatility into reported results. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Severe global air travel contraction | 24% | -28% | An acute international stagflation shockstagflation shockA sudden change that weakens growth while increasing inflation.View full glossary entry, exacerbated by sustained oil prices above $120 and geopolitical airspace closures, could trigger global commercial passenger capacity cuts. Airlines would idle narrowbody jets and defer engine overhauls, causing flight-hour billings and high-margin civil spare parts revenue to contract sharply. |
| Catastrophic LEAP fleetwide airworthiness grounding | 17% | -32% | Detection of a systemic metallurgical flaw or uncontained turbine rotor failure could trigger emergency airworthiness directives grounding significant portions of the global LEAP fleet. Beyond direct inspection outlays and heavy airline compensation liabilities, cash flow would evaporate under acute warranty claims, severely compressing valuation multiples. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Rafale fighter export mega-tranche | 34% | +22% | Intensifying regional security fragmentation could trigger emergency defense appropriations, securing unexpected export contracts for over one hundred additional Rafale fighters by late 2027. Supplying twin M88 engines, optronics, and navigation suites would dramatically expand military backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry, adding high-margin sovereign earnings and prompting an institutional multiple re-rating. |
| RISE open-fan commercial platform exclusivity | 26% | +27% | CFM International's Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines demonstrator could achieve verified aerodynamic and fuel-burn breakthroughs ahead of schedule, prompting airframers to select it exclusively for mid-2030s clean-sheet aircraft. Securing an exclusive platform mandate would shut out competitors, unlocking decades of guaranteed aftermarket royalties and expanding terminal valuationterminal valuationTerminal valuation is the estimated value of an asset or business beyond the explicit forecast period in a discounted cash flow model.View full glossary entry. |
Company Financial Analysis
Safran Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
The headline financial results show striking volatility that requires careful interpretation. While reported net income swung dramatically between fiscal 2024 and 2025 due to non-cash currency hedging adjustments under international accounting rules, underlying revenue expanded 12.5% to €31.2 billion. Commercial engine spare parts billings and expanding equipment shipments drove genuine industrial performance. Free cash flow generation proved exceptionally resilient, reaching €4.48 billion in 2025 and €2.62 billion in the first half of 2026. This cash strength validates that daily flight-hour collections decouple from paper accounting noise. The business consistently turns operational flight hours into cash, funding dividends and share buybacks.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 31.2B | EUR 7.2B | EUR 4.5B |
| 2024 | EUR 27.7B | EUR -667M | EUR 3.7B |
| 2023 | EUR 23.7B | EUR 3.4B | EUR 3.4B |
| 2022 | EUR 19.5B | EUR -2.5B | EUR 2.7B |
| 2021 | EUR 15.3B | EUR 43M | EUR 1.7B |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19.1x | TTM | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2024 | 31.8x | TTM | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2023 | 14.3x | TTM | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | EUR / EUR |
| 2021 | >100x | Annual | Native | EUR / EUR |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Operating profitability demonstrates powerful structural expansion, with adjusted recurring operating margin climbing to 16.6% in 2025 and reaching 18.4% in the first half of 2026. The commercial propulsion division spearheaded this widening, logging margins of 24.5% due to robust civil spare parts sales and contractual inflation adjustments. While ramping new engine assembly initially exerts negative margin drag, the expanding fleet creates an enduring aftermarket tollbooth. As mature legacy engines undergo intensive overhauls and newer engines transition from early warranties into profitable maintenance contracts, the favorable mix shift establishes a permanently higher profitability floor across the enterprise.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 4.1B | 13.3% | 23.0% |
| 2024 | EUR 4.2B | 15.1% | -2.4% |
| 2023 | EUR 2.8B | 11.8% | 14.6% |
| 2022 | EUR 2B | 10.5% | -12.6% |
| 2021 | EUR 864M | 5.6% | 0.3% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
The balance sheet is an institutional fortress characterized by structural conservatism. The company closed 2025 with a modest debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 and exceptional interest coverage exceeding 35 times operating income. By mid-2026, cash and liquid balances comfortably exceeded gross interest-bearing liabilities, establishing a net cash position of approximately €1.7 billion. This solvency fortress shields operations from elevated central bank borrowing costs and credit market volatility. While substantial customer advance payments represent commitments to future hardware deliveries, they provide non-debt liquidity that safely funds ongoing share cancellations, regular dividend increases, and selective aerospace bolt-on acquisitions.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 5.3B | EUR 6.8B | EUR 1.5B net cash | 0.90x |
| 2024 | EUR 5.1B | EUR 6.8B | EUR 1.5B net cash | 0.84x |
| 2023 | EUR 6.6B | EUR 6.7B | EUR 94M net cash | 0.95x |
| 2022 | EUR 6.9B | EUR 6.7B | EUR 262M net debt | 0.88x |
| 2021 | EUR 7.1B | EUR 5.2B | EUR 1.9B net debt | 1.01x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
Management exercises commendable discipline over physical capital commitments, keeping capital expenditures steady near 4.0% of revenue. Investment is strictly targeted at eliminating assembly bottlenecks, expanding maintenance shops in Mexico, Belgium, and Morocco, and funding next-generation propulsion research like the open-fan RISE engine program. This focused investment strategy preserves superior cash conversion rates without compromising manufacturing leadership. By expanding specialized maintenance capacity ahead of the impending wave of new engine overhauls, the company ensures it captures high-margin repair work for decades without overburdening the balance sheet with idle, underutilized physical facilities.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 1.2B | EUR 1.6B |
| 2024 | EUR 1B | EUR 1.5B |
| 2023 | EUR 874M | EUR 1.4B |
| 2022 | EUR 879M | EUR 1.2B |
| 2021 | EUR 756M | EUR 838M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Safran Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in EUR; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (EUR) | Base case (EUR) | Bull case (EUR) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | FX (EUR/USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €310.08 | €328.77 | €335.92 | $750.26 | 1.1360 | |
| €303.88 | €337.98 | €346.00 | $736.44 | 1.1255 | |
| €288.68 | €345.68 | €363.30 | $743.40 | 1.1272 | |
| €282.91 | €350.51 | €374.20 | $755.15 | 1.1312 | |
| €285.74 | €360.14 | €389.16 | $776.22 | 1.1401 | |
| €294.31 | €372.48 | €400.84 | $787.13 | 1.1452 | |
| €306.08 | €381.88 | €416.87 | $802.83 | 1.1510 | |
| €312.21 | €387.72 | €425.21 | $812.05 | 1.1584 | |
| €321.57 | €396.42 | €442.22 | $839.18 | 1.1617 | |
| €331.22 | €407.17 | €455.49 | $850.50 | 1.1694 | |
| €341.16 | €416.37 | €469.15 | $872.39 | 1.1719 | |
| €347.98 | €423.11 | €478.53 | $885.51 | 1.1763 | |
| €358.42 | €433.55 | €492.89 | $909.56 | 1.1781 | |
| €365.59 | €444.08 | €502.75 | $916.13 | 1.1832 | |
| €376.55 | €454.62 | €517.83 | $936.51 | 1.1867 | |
| €384.09 | €461.43 | €528.19 | $947.34 | 1.1894 | |
| €391.77 | €471.11 | €544.03 | $969.59 | 1.1887 | |
| €399.60 | €482.21 | €554.91 | $979.99 | 1.1913 | |
| €407.59 | €492.77 | €571.56 | $999.60 | 1.1971 | |
| €413.70 | €502.59 | €582.99 | $1,012 | 1.1964 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The consensus centers on an unassailable commercial narrowbody propulsion duopoly and expanding European defense backlogs. A widespread correlated assumption among several reports is that the shares trade at a modest sixteen times trailing earnings. Forensic accounting audits disprove this: reported net income was distorted by non-cash mark-to-market currency hedges under IFRS, swinging headline figures while true adjusted earnings place the multiple above thirty times. Consequently, reports identifying this valuation reality receive the highest weights. The strongest credible contrarian case emphasizes customer airline balance-sheet strain from elevated jet fuel prices and macro tightening, which could prompt maintenance deferrals and compress high multiples before compounding reasserts itself. Unresolved uncertainties include the timing of the narrowbody production ramp, customer contract mix shifts, and sub-tier casting shortages. Allocations favor disciplined perspectives that model steady operating profit growth against gradual multiple normalization.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraThis perspective delivers the most accurate financial reconstruction, demonstrating that clean adjusted earnings imply roughly 38 times earnings rather than sixteen. Its balanced terminal trajectory models genuine operating earnings growth counterbalanced by multiple normalization, establishing the highest analytical standard.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Providing superior grounded data, this report details the first-half spare-engine skew, contractual rate-75 dynamics, and duration sensitivity against five-percent benchmark bond yields. It properly balances multi-year defense and aftermarket tailwinds against realistic multiple compression, warranting heavy weighting.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe report presents a rigorous forensic audit of customer airline health, fuel sensitivity, and headline currency distortion. It provides the strongest credible contrarian insight by demonstrating how high entry multiples and airline cash rationing can trigger near-term consolidation before compounding resumes.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report provides excellent causal reasoning regarding the tension between robust operating cash flow and high entry multiples. It realistically models gradual multiple compression toward long-term medians as discount rates persist, making its conservative path economically sound and highly credible.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe analysis offers thorough grounded evidence across civil aerospace and sovereign defense rearmament. It accurately traces operating leverage and working capital friction. Its terminal projection is balanced, though it slightly understates the drag of customer airline fare compression, warranting an intermediate weight.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report correctly identifies the substitution mechanism where airframe delivery bottlenecks extend legacy engine maintenance utilization. Its path appropriately captures steady mid-teens operational compounding, though it is slightly too generous regarding multiple expansion during the early forecast quarters.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashA solid macroeconomic framework connects late-cycle monetary policy and airline flight cycles to corporate earnings. It correctly emphasizes counter-cyclical defense orders and balance-sheet solvency, although its quarterly trajectory slightly underestimates the speed of initial shop-visit margin recognition.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis perspective delivers a vivid thesis on the non-discretionary nature of civil aviation maintenance and defense commitments. However, it displays excessive optimism regarding assembly ramp velocity and underestimates sub-tier metallurgical inflation, justifying a moderate weighting in the composite scenario.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis analysis accurately highlights the sovereign political shielding, French defense contracts, and duopoly pricing power. It is penalized slightly for understating starting valuation multiples due to headline reporting noise, but retained for its sharp assessment of European rearmament backlogs.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report correctly identifies the accounting distortion from currency hedging derivatives and highlights the cash flow strength of older engine shop visits. However, its path models an aggressive multiple expansion that overlooks duration risk in a high-rate environment, justifying a modest allocation.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe submission captures the physical narrowbody duopoly and regulatory flightworthiness constraints that protect aftermarket cash flows. Nevertheless, its valuation trajectory projects sustained multiple expansion that neglects broader macro liquidity tightness and airline balance-sheet pressures, limiting its analytical weight.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashWhile capturing commercial aftermarket dominance and defense backlogs effectively, this view assumes near-frictionless cash compounding. It downplays tier-two casting bottlenecks, jet fuel inflation, and valuation duration sensitivity under restrictive monetary conditions, requiring a lower weighting relative to more disciplined perspectives.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis analysis correctly articulates the installed-base moat and share cancellation benefits, but erroneously anchors on an unadjusted trailing price-to-earnings ratio of sixteen. By overlooking non-cash derivative hedging distortions in headline figures, its margin-of-safety argument is flawed, requiring a reduced weight.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashLike other value-oriented submissions, this report relies on unadjusted financial figures that misinterpret reported accounting swings as an operational bargain. While its qualitative view of the engine tollbooth is accurate, its numerical baseline lacks audit rigor, necessitating a reduced allocation.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Safran consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 75 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01EX-99.2 3 wlfc1q25presentationfina.htm EX-99.2 wlfc1q25presentationfinasec.gov
- 02H1 2026 RESULTS July 28, 2026 Olivier ANDRIES Chief Executive Officersafran-group.com
- 03Safran reports excellent financial performance in 2025 and raises its 2028 ambitions | Safransafran-group.com
- 04Safran reports its first-half 2026 results | Safransafran-group.com
- 05Safran stock falls after S&P credit upgrade and Berenberg Buy ratingad-hoc-news.de
- 06Safran stock gains as JPMorgan lifts price target to 460 eurosad-hoc-news.de
- 07Safran stock gains on JPMorgan target hike and solid 2026 momentumad-hoc-news.de
- 08Safran stock trades near analyst targets as sector stays in focusad-hoc-news.de
- 09Safran raises 2026 outlook as LEAP deliveries surge 41%aerotime.aero
- 10SAF Q2-2026 Earnings Call - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
- 11Safran - Company Analysis and Outlook Report 2026 (Updated)aviationoutlook.com
- 12Leap Aftermarket Poised For Growth | Aviation Weekaviationweek.com
- 13CFM secures certification for LEAP-1B durability upgradescfmaeroengines.com
- 14RISE Overview - CFM Internationalcfmaeroengines.com
- 15SAFRF Q2 FY2026 earnings call — BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
And 60 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
annual: 2014-12-31–2025-12-31, 12 periods; quarterly: 2023-12-31–2026-06-30, 6 periods
Currencies cited: EUR, USD (quote EUR; primary reporting EUR; converted/valuation USD).
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