AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
NEUTRAL
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
NEUTRAL$3.92
+2.3%5-Year
NEUTRAL$4.85
+26.7%Latest flagship insight
Clinical Validation Battles Dilution Overhang In Platform Biotech Operational Transformation
The reports reflect high consensus that lead candidate clinical progress and pharmaceutical milestone inflows provide crucial fundamental backing, but sharp divergence remains on whether persistent cash burn and inevitable equity dilution will constrain per-share equity appreciation over the five-year forecast horizon.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Universal Investor (Polymath), Michael Burry (Vulture), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Machiavelli (Insider), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Elon Musk (Visionary). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Recursion Pharmaceuticals at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $12,668 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 4.05 | +5.79% | +5.79% | Presentation of mature Phase 2 TUPELO data for REC-4881 confirms durable polyp reduction. Clinical validation and short covering spark an initial relief rally, partially tempered by restrictive macroeconomic interest rates and year-end positioning. |
| Q1 2027 | 3.98 | -1.75% | +3.94% | Full-year financial reporting highlights structural cash burn alongside reduced collaboration recognition. Guidance quantifies 2027 clinical spending, prompting investors to refocus on the finite operational runway and trimming post-catalyst speculative sentiment. |
| Q2 2027 | 4.10 | +3.07% | +7.13% | Initial Phase 1 safety data for REC-7735 and an early discovery option exercise by Genentech provide non-dilutive milestone inflows. Pipeline breadth modestly reassures markets, stabilizing the share price against ongoing sector discount-rate friction. |
| Q3 2027 | 3.92 | -4.48% | +2.33% | Cash reserves approach critical thresholds, reviving market focus on the early-2028 runway boundary. Heightened anticipation of an equity offering in a high-rate environment introduces mechanical selling pressure, depressing speculative platform multiples. |
| Q4 2027 | 3.81 | -2.84% | -0.57% | Management executes an underwritten follow-on offering and utilizes at-the-market facilities to secure clinical runway into 2030. Immediate per-share dilution triggers a sharp repricing, resetting the stock price to absorb newly issued common equity. |
| Q1 2028 | 3.65 | -4.10% | -4.65% | Removal of near-term insolvency risk allows institutional investors to re-engage with reset per-share valuations. REC-4881 advances into registrational cohorts, fostering a modest post-financing stabilization as operational focus shifts to clinical execution. |
| Q2 2028 | 3.82 | +4.59% | -0.27% | Sanofi advances an immunology target, triggering a contractual milestone payment. The non-dilutive injection validates platform utility, supporting quarterly operating cash flow and lifting sentiment across collaborative pipeline programs. |
| Q3 2028 | 3.82 | -0.08% | -0.35% | Routine biological attrition in an exploratory oncology cohort reminds market participants of base-rate clinical development hurdles. Pruning an early program narrows pipeline optionality, prompting mild valuation consolidation during late-summer trading. |
| Q4 2028 | 3.97 | +3.94% | +3.58% | Interim registrational trial monitoring for REC-4881 indicates sustained safety and tolerability in familial adenomatous polyposis. Reduced regulatory ambiguity supports a moderate valuation recovery as long-duration healthcare specialist funds accumulate positions. |
| Q1 2029 | 3.96 | -0.28% | +3.29% | Annual financial reporting illustrates that expanding multi-site pivotal trial commitments offset earlier post-merger integration efficiencies. Persistent operating cash outflows limit upward multiple expansion, maintaining a tight trading range across pre-commercial biotechs. |
| Q2 2029 | 4.07 | +2.98% | +6.37% | Roche exercises an option on an advanced collaborative discovery target, delivering non-dilutive cash and external validation. The milestone eases intermediate financing requirements, driving selective institutional buying across collaborative drug discovery platforms. |
| Q3 2029 | 4.08 | +0.10% | +6.48% | Escalating preparation expenses for registration filings and pre-commercial supply chains expand quarterly operating expenditures. Investors trim speculative positions ahead of pivotal data releases, weighing capital intensity against uncommercialized orphan drug economics. |
| Q4 2029 | 4.21 | +3.15% | +9.83% | Completed patient enrollment in the REC-4881 registrational study establishes a firm calendar toward primary endpoint readouts. Anticipation of late-stage data generates speculative accumulation, lifting the stock toward multi-quarter highs. |
| Q1 2030 | 4.17 | -0.85% | +8.89% | Quiet clinical calendars and broader macroeconomic scrutiny over unprofitable technology platforms induce defensive portfolio hedging. The equity consolidates gains while investors await formal independent data monitoring committee evaluations. |
| Q2 2030 | 4.43 | +6.33% | +15.78% | Topline pivotal data for REC-4881 meets primary endoscopic endpoints, confirming statistically significant polyp reduction. Definitive late-stage clinical validation triggers aggressive short covering and elevates pipeline net asset value benchmarks. |
| Q3 2030 | 4.44 | +0.24% | +16.06% | Post-catalyst euphoria moderates as sell-side analysts evaluate commercial launch costs and specialized field-force requirements in orphan oncology. Tactical profit-taking ensues while management prepares regulatory filing dossiers. |
| Q4 2030 | 4.59 | +3.34% | +19.93% | Submission of the New Drug Application for REC-4881 under FDA Priority Review solidifies commercial transition timing. Institutional capital inflows re-rate the enterprise from an experimental platform to an emerging commercial biopharma producer. |
| Q1 2031 | 4.66 | +1.52% | +21.76% | Commercial inventory buildout and pre-launch marketing outlays expand operating expenses, temporarily masking margin improvements. The equity trades range-bound as investors monitor European regulatory filing acceptance and pricing discussions. |
| Q2 2031 | 4.79 | +2.82% | +25.19% | FDA approval of REC-4881 grants seven-year orphan drug market exclusivity, validating the core clinical thesis. The milestone drives substantial upward repricing, though gains remain bounded by historical share-count expansion. |
| Q3 2031 | 4.85 | +1.19% | +26.68% | First commercial product sales and ongoing partner milestone receipts converge toward operational cash-flow breakeven. Market valuation stabilizes around verified commercial orphan economics, concluding the five-year cycle with disciplined per-share compounding. |
The central economic thesis hinges on a structural race between clinical de-risking and per-share dilution. Disciplined post-merger rationalization under Dr. Najat Khan has successfully lowered annual cash operating expenses below $375 million, while ongoing Phase 2 trials for lead candidate REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis offer a tangible path toward commercialization. However, with trailing twelve-month free cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry exceeding $350 million against liquid balances of $557 million, the existing runway terminates in early 2028. Consequently, enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry appreciation will be heavily taxed by repeated equity issuance before therapeutic revenues materialize. Valuation sensitivity remains acutely exposed to high macroeconomic discount rates and clinical attrition base rates. The strongest counterargument stresses that computational algorithms cannot bypass systemic human pharmacology, risking catastrophic trial failure.
Key insights
- In-licensing provenance of lead clinical assets demonstrates that platform optionality reflects pharmacological translation rather than unassisted de novo algorithmic generation.
- Persistent quarterly cash consumption necessitates roughly 150 to 200 million shares of dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry, creating a divergence between enterprise and per-share returns.
- Pharmaceutical alliances with Genentech and Sanofi act as essential sovereign buffers, delivering non-dilutive milestone capital that defers predatory financing.
The company faces an intense race between scientific progress and spending reality. Management has reduced annual operating expenses and achieved promising clinical results in a rare genetic disease. However, running large clinical trials consumes substantial cash, meaning current cash reserves will only fund operations into early 2028. To survive and reach commercial drug sales, the business will need to issue new shares, which cuts existing shareholders' slice of future profits even if the medicine succeeds.
Key insights
- Lead drug candidates show real medical promise, but developing them requires continuous, expensive clinical trials.
- Future share issuances will dilute current owners, limiting per-share stock gains despite technological advancements.
- Major pharmaceutical partnerships provide vital cash infusions that help keep the laboratory funded without immediate debt.
Deep Dive
The outside market treats the stock as a speculative artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry showcase whose promise has deflated following early clinical trial failures and high short interest. Wall Street consensus fixates on an impending cash cliff and chronic quarterly revenue volatility, assuming heavy share dilution is unavoidable and heavily discounting multi-billion-dollar pharmaceutical milestone agreements as promotional narrative rather than durable financial backing.
Paywalled preview begins: Deep Dive: detailed analysis
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Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? The outside market treats the stock as a speculative artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry showcase whose promise has deflated following early clinical trial failures and high short interest. Wall Street consensus fixates on an impending cash cliff and chronic quarterly revenue volatility, assuming heavy share dilution is unavoidable and heavily discounting multi-billion-dollar pharmaceutical milestone agreements as promotional narrative rather than durable financial backing.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd establishes no compelling directional gap at prevailing trading levels, as clinical optionality and structural financing dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry largely offset. The market's critical misread lies in treating the business as an empty software platform, overlooking over $500 million in realized non-dilutive partner inflows and a 40% reduction in operating cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry. However, bulls overlook that lead asset REC-4881 was in-licensed, meaning computational screening alone has not eliminated human clinical attrition.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? A formal FDA agreement on registrational protocol and surrogate endpoints for REC-4881 in early 2027, paired with necessary balance-sheet recapitalization, serves as the decisive convergence catalyst. Clear regulatory guidelines will force market participants to reprice tangible orphan drug exclusivity against the precise share count issued to finance Phase 3 trials, triggering short covering and aligning market valuation with asset-level pharmacology.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Fear
- Volatility
- High Erratic
- Cycle position
- Stabilization
Sentiment signals agree on persistent fear and high volatility following pipeline pruning and macro tightening. The decisive disagreement centers on whether the stock is stabilizing at tangible asset value or facing continued capitulation from inevitable share dilution.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macroeconomic regimemacroeconomic regimeThe prevailing set of economic conditions including interest rates and inflation that influence asset pricing.View full glossary entry of Federal Reserve benchmark interest rates near 4.0% and ten-year Treasury yields hovering near 5.0% acts as a persistent headwind. Elevated risk-free discount rates compress the discounted net present value of pre-commercial biotechnology cash flows projected beyond 2029, while tightening external capital markets makes equity refinancing exceptionally punitive.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary disagreement centers on the economic balance between enterprise pipeline maturation and per-share dilution. Bullish models argue that over 500 million dollars in non-dilutive partner inflows and orphan-drug pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry will allow the company to reach commercialization without severe equity debasement, driving multi-fold re-rating. Bearish frameworks contend that trailing free cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry of 354 million dollars mathematically guarantees massive share issuance before 2028, capping per-share gains regardless of scientific milestones. This tension will be resolved by the regulatory trial design agreed with the FDA for REC-4881 and the scale of subsequent capital raises.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreVery High89/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lead asset clinical registrational advancement | Innovation And Product | +32% | +25% | REC-4881 demonstrated a 43% median polyp burden reduction in Phase 2 trials for familial adenomatous polyposis. Advancing this rare-disease asset toward an FDA registrational pathway provides the company with its nearest commercial prospect in a disease lacking approved medical therapy, substantially expanding pipeline net present value. |
| Pharma partnership milestone cash monetization | Competitive Positioning | +26% | +35% | Collaborations with Roche, Genentech, and Sanofi have delivered over $500 million in cumulative non-dilutive funding. Continued discovery option exercises and preclinical nominations inject high-margin milestone payments directly into the income statement, validating platform industrial utility while subsidizing clinical development expenses without immediate equity dilutionequity dilutionThe reduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new shares.View full glossary entry. |
| Post-merger operating expense containment | Operational Efficiency | +20% | +25% | Management curtailed 2026 cash operating expense guidance below $375 million following the Exscientia integration, reducing pro forma spending by nearly 40%. Pruning non-viable programs and extracting administrative synergies slows liquid treasury burn, extending the operational cash runway into early 2028 and deferring urgent equity refinancing rounds. |
| Industrialized automated phenomics discovery flywheel | Sector And Industry | +15% | +18% | Pairing high-throughput robotic wet laboratories with automated chemical design and supercomputing architecture compresses hit-to-lead timelines from years to quarters. By generating massive proprietary perturbational datasets, the platform reduces preclinical discovery unit costs and commands sustainable licensing interest across multi-target biopharmaceutical partnership frameworks. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry overhang | Capital Allocation | -32% | -18% | Annual free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry burn exceeding $300 million against trailing revenue under $60 million guarantees liquid depletion before self-funding is achieved. With cash reserves extending runway only into early 2028, management will inevitably issue substantial equity, expanding the share count and transferring pipeline appreciation to new capital providers. |
| Translational clinical trial attrition reality | Innovation And Product | -25% | -25% | Computational phenotypic screening cannot circumvent historical Phase 2 human clinical failure rates exceeding 70%, as demonstrated by previous candidate terminations. Inevitable trial attrition across internal and partnered oncology programs triggers periodic asset write-downs and impairs investor confidence in the predictive superiority of platform algorithms. |
| High interest rate valuation compression | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -20% | -10% | Federal Reserve policy rates near 4.00% and ten-year Treasury yields approaching 5.0% impose severe hurdle rates on pre-commercial biotechnology. Elevated discount rates compress long-duration pipeline cash-flow multiples, while tight institutional credit conditions elevate the required cost of equity capital across public markets. |
| Lumpy collaboration revenue recognitionrevenue recognitionRevenue recognition is the accounting process for recording sales when performance obligations are satisfied and economic benefits are reasonably measurable.View full glossary entry volatility | Operational Efficiency | -15% | -20% | Top-line performance relies heavily on partner-directed discovery milestones rather than predictable commercial product sales, causing quarterly revenues to fluctuate wildly. Milestone timing droughts produce severe headline revenue contraction, generating negative operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry against fixed laboratory overhead and leaving the equity vulnerable to periodic liquidity panics. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivotal trial efficacy failure in FAP | 36% | -55% | Should lead candidate REC-4881 fail to replicate polyp regression or demonstrate chronic off-target toxicities in expanded patient cohorts, the company's primary near-term value anchor would be eliminated. Losing the lead clinical program would severely damage faith in platform translatability, triggering an immediate equity collapse toward liquidation cash value. |
| Distressed dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry down-round financing | 32% | -45% | If partnership milestone disbursements stall while clinical trial costs accelerate into 2028, management could face acute cash depletion amid hostile capital market conditions. Being forced into an emergency equity offering at a severe discount would heavily dilute existing common equity, permanently impairing per-share value and entrenching a depressed valuation trap. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerated FDA approval for REC-4881 | 32% | +85% | If the FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation and approves an accelerated registration pathway for REC-4881 based on surrogate polyp reduction, commercialization could occur by 2029 without a costly Phase 3 study. This would eliminate substantial trial expense and accelerate high-margin orphan revenue. The outcome remains below 50% probability given stringent regulatory surrogate criteria. |
| Strategic takeover by pharmaceutical partner | 20% | +75% | A major collaboration partner like Roche or Sanofi could launch a corporate acquisition to internalize the BioHive supercomputing infrastructure and automated wet-lab chemistry platform. A takeover bid would provide immediate liquidity at a premium, though it carries sub-50% probability because pharmaceutical incumbents generally prefer licensing individual drug assets over acquiring capital-intensive platform overhead. |
Company Financial Analysis
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
Recursion's financial performance highlights the erratic reality of an early-stage drug developer that has not yet commercialized a medicine. For the twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $54.9 million against an operating deficit of $544 million. Because the company depends on sporadic milestone payments from partners rather than steady product sales, revenue plunged nearly 60% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026 after earlier project phases wrapped up. However, reported losses are beginning to narrow as management enforces strict spending discipline. Operating expenses fell considerably in recent quarters, reflecting post-merger streamlining and lower data purchase costs. Even with these savings, cash generation remains negative, meaning incoming partner payments cushion spending rather than achieving self-sufficiency.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 74.7M | USD -644.8M | USD -378.3M |
| 2024 | USD 58.8M | USD -463.7M | USD -372.9M |
| 2023 | USD 43.9M | USD -328.1M | USD -300.3M |
| 2022 | USD 39.7M | USD -239.4M | USD -120.9M |
| 2021 | USD 10M | USD -178.1M | USD -198.4M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2021 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Profitability margins remain deeply negative, reflecting an R&D-heavy business where laboratory running costs vastly exceed early partnership payments. In fiscal 2025, gross margin registered at negative 62%, while operating margins remained below negative 300% due to ongoing laboratory overhead and clinical trial expenses. These severe deficits are a natural feature of pre-commercial biotechnology rather than a temporary slump. High-throughput automated screening carries significant fixed costs that cannot be scaled down easily when milestone payments pause. Lasting profit margins will only appear once internally owned drug candidates secure regulatory approval or yield substantial commercial sales royalties.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -648.1M | -867.9% | -863.4% |
| 2024 | USD -479M | -814.1% | -788.0% |
| 2023 | USD -350.1M | -797.8% | -747.7% |
| 2022 | USD -245.7M | -619.3% | -603.4% |
| 2021 | USD -182.8M | -1827.8% | -1780.7% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
On the surface, the balance sheet looks solid, holding approximately $557 million in cash and short-term investments with negligible funded debt. A conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 keeps the company safe from immediate bankruptcy or loan defaults, providing comfortable near-term liquidity. Nevertheless, this cash cushion is being consumed steadily. With annual cash burn running near $350 million, current reserves provide financial runway only into early 2028. Because there are no commercial product sales to replenish the treasury, the primary threat to existing investors is not debt default, but the need to sell new shares at low prices to keep operations running.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 78M | USD 743.3M | USD 665.3M net cash | 5.50x |
| 2024 | USD 108.5M | USD 594.4M | USD 485.9M net cash | 3.81x |
| 2023 | USD 50.7M | USD 391.6M | USD 340.9M net cash | 4.70x |
| 2022 | USD 51M | USD 549.9M | USD 498.9M net cash | 5.68x |
| 2021 | USD 11.5M | USD 516.6M | USD 273.6M net cash | 11.46x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
Management has shifted its spending strategy from building massive physical infrastructure toward running targeted clinical trials. In earlier years, capital expenditures consumed a significant portion of revenue as the company constructed robotic wet laboratories and the BioHive supercomputing cluster. By 2025, physical capital spending dropped below 9% of revenue as these primary facilities reached completion. This reduction preserves cash, but it does not make drug development cheap. The true capital commitment now resides in research and clinical trial execution, which consumed $425 million in 2025. Rather than buying more supercomputers, the company is spending its treasury to test potential medicines in human patients.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 6.5M | USD 425.3M |
| 2024 | USD 13.7M | USD 314.4M |
| 2023 | USD 12M | USD 241.2M |
| 2022 | USD 37.4M | USD 155.7M |
| 2021 | USD 39.8M | USD 135.3M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (USD) | Base case (USD) | Bull case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.5236 | $4.0297 | $4.2896 | $750.26 | |
| $3.3122 | $3.9701 | $4.5041 | $736.44 | |
| $3.4778 | $4.1108 | $4.8181 | $743.40 | |
| $3.13 | $3.9264 | $5.1072 | $755.15 | |
| $2.9109 | $3.8244 | $4.9539 | $776.22 | |
| $2.6836 | $3.6824 | $5.053 | $787.13 | |
| $2.6641 | $3.8231 | $5.3022 | $802.83 | |
| $2.4509 | $3.839 | $5.2324 | $812.05 | |
| $2.5056 | $4.0075 | $5.9756 | $839.18 | |
| $2.4681 | $4.0118 | $5.8786 | $850.50 | |
| $2.246 | $4.1567 | $6.5253 | $872.39 | |
| $2.3133 | $4.195 | $6.7863 | $885.51 | |
| $2.1514 | $4.3638 | $7.2613 | $909.56 | |
| $2.0654 | $4.3703 | $7.5531 | $916.13 | |
| $2.2233 | $4.6528 | $8.397 | $936.51 | |
| $2.0968 | $4.7245 | $9.2133 | $947.34 | |
| $1.9919 | $4.9341 | $9.8748 | $969.59 | |
| $2.0318 | $5.0684 | $10.57 | $979.99 | |
| $1.9505 | $5.2095 | $11.62 | $999.60 | |
| $1.892 | $5.3582 | $12.20 | $1,012 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The synthesized consensus across all reports reveals a consistent economic pattern: clinical validation in lead candidate REC-4881 and disciplined operational expense containment toward 375 million dollars annually are actively competing against structural cash burn and unavoidable equity dilution before 2028. Reports that treat platform artificial intelligence as self-funding software are systematically downweighted, as empirical evidence demonstrates that biological drug development requires costly clinical trial execution. Conversely, reports emphasizing capital-structure arithmetic—specifically that enterprise pipeline growth will be diluted across an expanding share count—receive higher weight due to superior causal consistency. The strongest credible contrarian insight confirms that lead clinical asset REC-4881 was externally in-licensed rather than generated de novo by algorithms, proving that platform validation remains tied to conventional pharmacological translation rather than pure computational superiority. Weight allocations appropriately balance non-dilutive pharmaceutical milestone inflows against relentless equity dilution and macroeconomic discount-rate pressures.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraThis report provides strong causal clarity regarding share-count expansion and the structural difference between enterprise progress and per-share returns. It grounds valuation in disciplined asset-level sums rather than platform multiples, correctly incorporating in-licensed asset mechanics while acknowledging lead clinical optionality.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5This submission offers exceptional granular accounting analysis, highlighting the pre-loaded at-the-market equity facility and distinguishing non-cash charges from recurring cash burn. Its realistic recognition that expense cuts buy time rather than deliver self-funded profitability makes its balanced path highly credible.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe perspective balances legitimate Phase 2 polyp reduction in familial adenomatous polyposis against the mechanical depletion of liquid balances. Its emphasis on intermediate dilutive equity raises before registrational completion is economically consistent with operating cash burn and high macroeconomic discount rates.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashDemonstrating forensic rigor, this analysis correctly notes that the lead clinical asset originated externally, puncturing unverified claims of de novo computational discovery. Its valuation friction accurately models the compression of steep price-to-sales multiples under ongoing equity issuance and historical pipeline attrition.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report astutely identifies the company's evolution as an adaptive consolidator post-Exscientia. It reconciles operational expenditure limits with recurring partner milestone tranches, presenting a credible path of volatile range-bound trading anchored by gradual registrational progress.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashProviding a keen assessment of pharmaceutical sponsorship, this report captures how alliances buffer operational cash outflows. It tends toward optimistic multiple re-expansion but correctly highlights statutory orphan exclusivity and governance realignment under experienced drug-development leadership.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashA balanced evaluation emphasizing the multi-year lag between preclinical automated screening and human clinical proof. It accurately reflects the burden of trailing operating losses against volatile collaboration revenue, applying a reasonable discount to speculative biological foundation model claims.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashFocusing sharply on capital structure, this analysis traces the unavoidable collision between operating cash burn and the early-2028 runway boundary. Its rationale on dilution capping multiple expansion is sound, though it moderately underestimates the upside of accelerated regulatory surrogate endpoints.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashA solid, fact-based synthesis connecting disciplined post-merger spending with clinical-stage pivot execution. It presents a balanced view of pipeline net present value versus share-count expansion, maintaining plausible return checkpoints across the five-year horizon.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashWhile properly identifying operational discipline under executive transition, the report assumes an overly aggressive commercial re-rating without sufficient allowance for subsequent registrational trial execution hurdles. The weight reflects its valuable articulation of partner milestone optionality while downweighting unhedged commercial optimism.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe report provides a disciplined examination of owner earnings and structural cash burn. However, it slightly overstates terminal impairment by underweighting non-dilutive partner milestone inflows that demonstrably prolong operational runway, justifying a measured baseline weight.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis analysis captures the operational reality of capital allocation shifting toward clinical execution after heavy supercomputing investments. It properly penalizes long-duration cash flows under elevated interest rates, though its price path somewhat exaggerates multiple contraction given existing pharmaceutical validation.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe framework effectively models the macroeconomic regime and discount-rate sensitivity for pre-revenue biotechnology. However, its long-term path discounts future milestone revenues somewhat excessively relative to historical partner cash realization, warranting a moderate weighting.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe submission forcefully details the risks of negative operating leverage and physical consumable costs in automated biology. However, its path models near-unrelieved equity erosion, discounting legitimate orphan-market clinical proof points and partner commitment excessively.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Recursion Pharmaceuticals consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 84 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
- 02RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026sec.gov
- 03recursionjpm2026presentasec.gov
- 04Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Earnings Report Q2 2026 | Miss, EPS & Revenue | 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 05Recursion Eyes Breakthrough With REC-4881 Drug, But Shares Pull Back - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 06Recursion Pharmaceuticals Reports Q2 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript - Recursion Pharmaceutic - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 07RXRX Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings | ChartMill.comchartmill.com
- 08RXRX Stock Price | Analyst Target 6.43 & Hold Consensusetoro.com
- 09Recursion’s Incoming CEO on Turning AI Drugs Into Clinical Proof Pointsgenengnews.com
- 10Recursion Announces CEO Transition Plan to Drive Next Phase of Growthglobenewswire.com
- 11Recursion Q1 2026 slides: pipeline advances amid revenue shortfall By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 12MAY 6, 2026 - Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ir.recursion.com
- 13Positive Phase 1b/2 Results from Ongoing REC-4881 TUPELO Trial Demonstrate Rapid and Durable Reductions in Polyp Burden in Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP) at 25 Weeksir.recursion.com
- 14Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - Press Releasesir.recursion.com
- 15Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - Recursion Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results and Provides Business Updateir.recursion.com
And 69 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
4 fieldscapitalExpenditures · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · totalCashFromOperatingActivities
annual: 2019-12-31–2025-12-31, 7 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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