AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Ferrari (2FE) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
NEUTRAL
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
NEUTRAL€376
+6.3%+6.9% incl. dividends5-Year
NEUTRAL€489
+38.4%+41.9% incl. dividendsLatest flagship insight
Luxury Scarcity Protects Margins While Interest Rates Anchor Valuation Multiples
High consensus confirms unprecedented pricing power and bespoke personalization insulate gross margins above fifty-one percent with order books covering two years. While industrial cash flow compounds dependably, sharp divergence surrounds whether elevated discount rates will compress historical thirty-eight times earnings multiples toward sustainable luxury averages.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Elon Musk (Visionary), Michael Burry (Vulture), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Universal Investor (Polymath), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Machiavelli (Insider). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
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ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Ferrari at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $14,757 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
* Return is calculated incl. 0.5% net dividend yield for Ferrari.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in EUR; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (EUR) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 356.77 | +1.01% | +1.01% | Initial commercial handovers of the sold-out F80 hypercar and resilient third-quarter personalization revenues drive positive cash conversion, offsetting broader European equity valuation drag caused by persistent central bank monetary restriction. |
| Q1 2027 | 363.19 | +1.80% | +2.83% | Audited full-year financial disclosures confirm operating margins approaching thirty percent alongside record industrial free cash flow. Confident management forward guidance reassures institutional investors, confirming order visibility comfortably spanning into 2028. |
| Q2 2027 | 368.85 | +1.56% | +4.43% | Spring capital markets updates and initial customer deliveries of refreshed models demonstrate strong pricing power. Robust cash flow generation supports annual dividend distributions, preserving steady share price performance despite elevated discount rates. |
| Q3 2027 | 375.56 | +1.82% | +6.33% | Transatlantic trade friction and selective tariff pass-through create modest administrative overhead, but firm contractual backlogs prevent dealer inventory discounting. Operating margins remain structurally protected, limiting quarterly valuation compression to negligible levels. |
| Q4 2027 | 382.61 | +1.88% | +8.33% | Commercial customer handovers of the maiden electric model begin smoothly, dispelling acute purist skepticism. High realized personalization revenues and disciplined factory throughput support a solid fourth-quarter financial close. |
| Q1 2028 | 392.11 | +2.48% | +11.02% | Full-year reporting reveals strong net income compounding driven by peak hypercar delivery cadence. Cash balances expand, prompting management to authorize accelerated share repurchases that enhance per-share intrinsic value. |
| Q2 2028 | 399.02 | +1.76% | +12.97% | Capital expenditures dedicated to flexible multi-powertrain manufacturing stabilize, accelerating cash harvest dynamics. Robust option take-rates across sports cars preserve return on invested capital comfortably above thirty percent. |
| Q3 2028 | 400.45 | +0.36% | +13.38% | Secondary luxury asset market softness induces broader valuation caution across consumer discretionary names. Maranello's strict volume ceiling insulates wholesale realization, keeping operating cash flows fully intact despite muted price momentum. |
| Q4 2028 | 409.56 | +2.27% | +15.96% | Announcement of a limited-edition special series instantly captures full customer allocation, replenishing forward order book visibility. Lucrative upfront collector deposits bolster working capital, triggering positive end-of-year equity repricing. |
| Q1 2029 | 417.94 | +2.05% | +18.33% | Annual financial results validate industrial free cash flow exceeding 1.7 billion euros. Systematic share retirements visibly reduce equity float, translating fundamental operational compounding directly into per-share earnings growth. |
| Q2 2029 | 425.00 | +1.69% | +20.33% | Operational integration within the dedicated e-building facility yields manufacturing efficiencies across electrified architectures. Proprietary motor and inverter manufacturing protects gross profitability against third-party component cost inflation. |
| Q3 2029 | 431.14 | +1.44% | +22.07% | Global monetary conditions consolidate as inflationary pressures moderate, stabilizing equity valuation hurdles. Deep customer waiting lists insulate revenue recognition from regional economic deceleration, sustaining dependable operating execution. |
| Q4 2029 | 439.68 | +1.98% | +24.48% | Bespoke personalization revenue approaches a quarter of vehicle sales, driving sequential gross margin expansion. High options intensity on delivered grand tourers delivers an incremental earnings surprise heading into year-end. |
| Q1 2030 | 448.93 | +2.10% | +27.10% | Reporting of annual figures demonstrates sustained operating margins above thirty-one percent. Generous dividend expansion and continued float reduction through programmatic repurchases reward patient long-term institutional shareholders. |
| Q2 2030 | 454.60 | +1.26% | +28.71% | Mid-cycle refreshes across front-engine grand tourers preserve production waitlists beyond eighteen months. Assembly line flexibility keeps unit manufacturing costs contained, safeguarding gross profitability against lingering supplier pricing friction. |
| Q3 2030 | 459.79 | +1.14% | +30.18% | Equity valuations trade within a tight band as investors digest multi-year multiple normalization toward historical luxury averages. Stable order velocity in North America and Europe provides robust valuation support. |
| Q4 2030 | 467.43 | +1.66% | +32.34% | Preview of next-generation electrified architectures featuring improved battery energy density dispels long-term technology transition concerns. Substantial customer advance deposits reinforce working capital strength and forward revenue visibility. |
| Q1 2031 | 476.02 | +1.84% | +34.77% | Audited results validate strategic revenue milestones approaching ten billion euros. Flawless pricing discipline and uninterrupted share count reduction drive per-share earnings to fresh historical highs, cementing institutional compounder conviction. |
| Q2 2031 | 481.50 | +1.15% | +36.33% | Authorization of a successor capital return framework highlights enduring balance sheet hygiene and negligible net industrial debt. High cash conversion sustains investor demand, keeping the shares well supported. |
| Q3 2031 | 488.68 | +1.49% | +38.36% | The five-year forecast horizon closes with valuation multiples stabilizing at thirty times earnings. Robust through-cycle free cash generation and an unassailable luxury brand moat cement dependable, low-volatility capital appreciation. |
The base-case investment thesis identifies an elite luxury compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry structurally decoupled from automotive cyclicality through artificial production scarcity and multi-year allocation rationing. Top-line expansion is deliberately steered via price realization, bespoke personalization exceeding twenty percent of revenues, and high-margin hypercar deliveries rather than unit volume growth. This capital-light mix shift sustains gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry above fifty-one percent and operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry near thirty-one percent, converting over eighty percent of net income into free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry. Valuation sensitivity remains the central investment tension. Quoted near thirty-eight times trailing earnings against four to five percent sovereign yields, equity duration risk is pronounced. Compounding earnings power will be partially absorbed by multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry toward thirty times earnings, producing mid-single-digit annualized share appreciation. The strongest counterargument posits that collector resistance to electric powertrains combined with aggressive transatlantic luxury tariffs will dilute return on invested capitalreturn on invested capitalReturn on invested capital (ROIC) measures how efficiently a business generates after-tax operating profit from the capital invested in its operations.View full glossary entry and shatter the aura of infallible desirability.
Key insights
- Personalization revenues operate as a software-like incremental profit engine, driving structural gross margin expansiongross margin expansionAn increase in gross profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry without requiring capital-intensive factory footprint expansion.
- Operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry derives strictly from value density per unit, ensuring return on invested capitalreturn on invested capitalReturn on invested capital (ROIC) measures how efficiently a business generates after-tax operating profit from the capital invested in its operations.View full glossary entry exceeds thirty percent despite strict output caps.
- Duration risk dictates that fundamental earnings compounding will outpace equity price returns as restrictive monetary policy normalizes terminal valuationterminal valuationTerminal valuation is the estimated value of an asset or business beyond the explicit forecast period in a discounted cash flow model.View full glossary entry multiples.
This business operates more like a high-end luxury fashion house than a traditional car company. By deliberately building fewer cars than wealthy collectors demand, it maintains waiting lists that stretch over two years. Customers happily pay massive markups for custom paint, unique interiors, and limited-edition supercars, allowing the company to raise prices faster than inflation without hurting sales. Even as the broader car industry faces cyclical downturns, this firm generates dependable, growing cash profits.
Key insights
- Long waiting lists act like financial insurance, protecting future revenue and factory profits from economic downturns.
- Custom design options generate huge profit marginsprofit marginsProfit margins measure the share of revenue retained as profit after covering specified costs, expressed as a percentage.View full glossary entry, turning regular vehicle deliveries into highly lucrative luxury transactions.
- High global interest rates may keep stock valuation multiples grounded, meaning share gains will follow steady earnings.
Deep Dive
Prevailing market consensus treats the franchise as an unassailable luxury monopoly priced for perfection. Sell-side research heavily anchors on the two-year sold-out order backlogorder backlogOrder backlog is the value or volume of confirmed customer orders that have not yet been delivered, fulfilled, or recognized as revenue.View full glossary entry, viewing mid-single-digit volume caps as proof of permanent earnings durability. However, the crowd simultaneously worries that persistent five percent sovereign bond yields and collector skepticism regarding the electric vehicle rollout will cap future valuation multiple expansionvaluation multiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as P/E or EV/EBITDA, often driven by stronger growth or lower perceived risk.View full glossary entry, locking shares in a holding pattern.
Paywalled preview begins: Deep Dive: detailed analysis
From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.
Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market consensus treats the franchise as an unassailable luxury monopoly priced for perfection. Sell-side research heavily anchors on the two-year sold-out order backlogorder backlogOrder backlog is the value or volume of confirmed customer orders that have not yet been delivered, fulfilled, or recognized as revenue.View full glossary entry, viewing mid-single-digit volume caps as proof of permanent earnings durability. However, the crowd simultaneously worries that persistent five percent sovereign bond yields and collector skepticism regarding the electric vehicle rollout will cap future valuation multiple expansionvaluation multiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as P/E or EV/EBITDA, often driven by stronger growth or lower perceived risk.View full glossary entry, locking shares in a holding pattern.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd underestimates the earnings power embedded in mix enrichment while overestimating terminal multipleterminal multipleValuation metric used to estimate the value of a company beyond the explicit forecast period.View full glossary entry durability, establishing a balanced valuation gapvaluation gapThe difference between a market price and an analyst's estimate of intrinsic value.View full glossary entry. Investors mistakenly analyze the company as a volume-constrained automotive producer, missing how hypercar deliveries and twenty-percent personalization attach rates drive double-digit average selling price growth. However, consensus clings to a forty-times earnings multipleearnings multipleThe ratio of share price to earnings per share used to determine stock valuation.View full glossary entry unsuited to a high-rate regime. The analytical edge lies in recognizing that organic cash compounding will power respectable returns despite inevitable multiple contraction.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Sequential delivery reports for the limited-series F80 hypercar and bespoke personalization updates across 2027 represent the primary repricing catalyst. Demonstrating quarterly operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry above thirty-one percent and industrial free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry crossing 1.6 billion euros will force analysts to upgrade forward cash projections. Hard financial evidence of pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry persisting through the electric launch will anchor valuation multiples firmly around thirty times earnings.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Balanced
- Volatility
- Moderate
- Cycle position
- Stabilization
Sentiment aligns around operational invulnerability but splits sharply on multiple sustainability. The decisive tension pits believers in permanent Hermès-style forty-times multiples against realists expecting derating toward thirty times under elevated sovereign yields, dictating whether five-year returns are modest or spectacular.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic backdrop of restrictive monetary policy, four percent benchmark policy rates, and transatlantic tariff disputes presents a distinct headwind for valuation multiples. However, transmission through customer demand is virtually nonexistent. Ultra-high-net-worth buyers exhibit zero borrowing-cost sensitivity, allowing the company to effortlessly pass through supply inflation while pristine interest coverage completely insulates balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry financing.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The foremost disagreement across research reports concerns whether valuation multiples can decouple from macroeconomic interest rate reality. One faction contends that absolute brand scarcity and Hermès-style pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry justify permanent multiples above thirty-five times earnings, viewing electrification as an additive profit layer. The opposing camp argues that mid-single-digit volume limits cannot defend premium multiples against five percent sovereign bond yields, projecting multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry toward twenty-eight times. Resolving this debate requires monitoring secondary market premiums on newly delivered electric models and tracking whether personalization contributions sustain above twenty percent in upcoming quarterly releases.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreLow20/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bespoke personalization margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry engine | Competitive Positioning | +20% | +25% | Client customization programs contribute over twenty percent of vehicle revenues with near-pure incremental margin. Bespoke liveries, exotic carbon fiber, and tailored interiors add substantial premiums to baseline transaction values. This structural pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry insulates gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry above fifty-one percent, driving earnings compounding regardless of strict factory volume ceilings. |
| Multi-year sold-out order backlogorder backlogOrder backlog is the value or volume of confirmed customer orders that have not yet been delivered, fulfilled, or recognized as revenue.View full glossary entry | Operational Efficiency | +16% | +18% | Commercial delivery books completely cover manufacturing capacity through late 2027, creating total revenue visibilityrevenue visibilityHow clearly future revenue can be estimated from contracts, subscriptions, or recurring demand patterns.View full glossary entry. Enforced allocation scarcity eliminates finished inventory holding costs and prevents discounting. Non-refundable customer deposits lock in working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry efficiency, completely decoupling operating performance from cyclical downturns that cripple mainstream and premium automakers. |
| Halo hypercar delivery cash cascade | Innovation And Product | +15% | +20% | Customer handovers of the 799-unit F80 hypercar priced at 3.6 million euros provide outsized gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry enrichment across 2026 to 2028. Allocations carry operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry exceeding fifty percent, directly injecting billions of high-margin revenue into the financial statements and structurally lifting industrial free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry generation. |
| Disciplined capital allocationcapital allocationThe decision process for directing capital among operations, investment, acquisitions, debt repayment, dividends, and share repurchases.View full glossary entry and buybacks | Capital Allocation | +11% | +10% | Annual industrial free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry exceeding 1.4 billion euros funds a multi-year 3.5 billion euro share repurchase framework alongside growing dividends. Systematically retiring roughly one to two percent of outstanding share floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry annually compounds per-share earnings power, providing mechanical valuation support through macroeconomic cycles. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High interest rate multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -16% | -3.0% | Benchmark sovereign yields anchored near five percent mechanically elevate equity discount rates. Commanding a trailing price-to-earnings multipleearnings multipleThe ratio of share price to earnings per share used to determine stock valuation.View full glossary entry near thirty-eight times leaves limited margin of safetymargin of safetyThe difference between an estimated intrinsic value and the purchase price, intended to allow for uncertainty or analytical error.View full glossary entry against risk-free returns. Institutional capitalinstitutional capitalCapital managed by professional institutions such as pension funds, insurers, sovereign funds, endowments, or asset managers.View full glossary entry demands higher earnings yields, exerting steady downward pressure on valuation multiples and capping equity price appreciation. |
| Electric transition capital and perception friction | Innovation And Product | -10% | -8.0% | Commercializing the battery-electric Luce platform tests brand loyalty as purists question synthetic acoustics and battery curb weight. Maintaining parallel development pipelines across combustion, hybrid, and electric drivetrains demands elevated engineering and depreciation expenses, creating transient margin drag before the electric architecture achieves mature manufacturing scale. |
| Transatlantic trade tariffs and border duties | Regulatory | -9.0% | -7.0% | Centralized Italian manufacturing exposes vehicle shipments into primary Western markets to Section 301 replacement tariffs and protectionist duties. While exceptional brand equity enables selective price pass-through, elevated duties increase administrative compliance friction, compress dealer margins, and modestly dampen addressable international order intake velocity. |
| Artificial scarcity caps volume growth | Competitive Positioning | -7.0% | -6.0% | Deliberately restricting annual shipments near fourteen thousand units preserves Veblen exclusivity but mathematically caps organic top-line expansion. Revenue growth becomes entirely reliant on price hikes, options intensity, and hypercar sequencing. Once special series cycles normalize, overall revenue growth naturally decelerates toward mid-single digits. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synchronized global ultra-wealth asset deflation | 22% | -28% | A severe macroeconomic dislocation characterized by prolonged stagflationstagflationAn economic condition characterized by stagnant growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.View full glossary entry, private equity freezes, and real estate declines impairs collector wealth between 2027 and 2028. Unprecedented order cancellations and collapsing secondary market premiums would pierce backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry invulnerability, compressing operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry below twenty-five percent and triggering multiple de-rating. |
| Inaugural electric architecture commercial rejection | 20% | -22% | The battery-electric Luce suffers critical customer rejection, severe secondary market depreciation, and electronic reliability failures upon customer deliveries in 2027. Collector abandonment forces line write-downs on dedicated facility investments, damaging engineering prestige and prompting institutional investors to re-rate the stock toward premium automotive multiples. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic fuel regulatory exemption formalization | 34% | +20% | European and international regulators codify permanent small-series exemptions for carbon-neutral synthetic e-fuels around 2028. This legislative victory eliminates compulsory phase-outs of high-margin naturally aspirated V12 and hybrid V8 engines, removing powertrain obsolescence discounts from equity valuation and permanently preserving Maranello's combustion monopoly. |
| Bespoke Icona hypercar program supercycle | 32% | +18% | Management unveils an accelerated cadence of ultra-limited Icona series commissions priced above 2.5 million euros for top collectors by 2028. Instantaneous sell-outs generate massive upfront customer deposits and gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry exceeding sixty-five percent, delivering substantial earnings windfalls and prompting sell-side multiple upgrades. |
Company Financial Analysis
Ferrari Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
Ferrari's latest financial results demonstrate that earnings growth is driven by rising prices rather than building more vehicles. In fiscal 2025, revenue increased 7% to 7.15 billion euros while operating profit surged nearly 12% to 2.10 billion euros, even though total car deliveries slightly declined. Results through mid-2026 confirmed this trend, with second-quarter revenue advancing over 8% on rich personalization options and special series allocations. The real financial highlight is exceptional cash generation. Industrial free cash flow reached 1.41 billion euros in 2025, representing an impressive 50% increase over the prior year. Customer deposits for multi-year waitlists effectively fund working capital, converting accounting profits directly into liquid cash.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 7.1B | EUR 1.6B | EUR 1.4B |
| 2024 | EUR 6.7B | EUR 1.5B | EUR 937.5M |
| 2023 | EUR 6B | EUR 1.3B | EUR 757.8M |
| 2022 | EUR 5.1B | EUR 932.6M | EUR 598.7M |
| 2021 | EUR 4.3B | EUR 830.8M | EUR 545.6M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36.0x | TTM | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2024 | 49.0x | TTM | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2023 | 44.4x | TTM | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2022 | 39.2x | Annual | Native | EUR / EUR |
| 2021 | 50.2x | Annual | Native | EUR / EUR |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Profitability margins resemble an ultra-exclusive luxury fashion house rather than a traditional car manufacturer. Gross margins expanded to 51.7% in 2025, while operating margins reached 29.4% and climbed past 31% in interim 2026. This performance proves that affluent collectors gladly absorb price increases and spend heavily on custom options. Because the business enforces strict production caps, it never discounts its vehicles. Bespoke client customizations carry minimal incremental factory costs, allowing incremental revenues to drop straight to operating profits. This pricing power provides a structural shield that reliably protects corporate profitability against raw material inflation.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 2.1B | 29.4% | 22.4% |
| 2024 | EUR 1.9B | 28.2% | 22.8% |
| 2023 | EUR 1.6B | 27.0% | 21.0% |
| 2022 | EUR 1.2B | 24.4% | 18.3% |
| 2021 | EUR 1.1B | 25.2% | 19.5% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
The balance sheet is structured as a financial fortress designed to survive harsh economic panics. Ferrari concluded 2025 with total assets of 9.63 billion euros against 3.91 billion euros in equity, maintaining a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32. Interest coverage reached an extraordinary 51 times, proving that debt servicing costs pose zero operational threat. Furthermore, net industrial debt stood at a negligible 131 million euros in mid-2026 despite funding heavy share repurchases and regular dividends. The company operates with total financial independence from commercial credit markets, leaving management fully equipped to self-fund innovation through changing interest rate cycles.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 1.3B | EUR 1.5B | EUR 1.3B net debt | 3.38x |
| 2024 | EUR 1.5B | EUR 1.7B | EUR 1.5B net debt | 3.37x |
| 2023 | EUR 1.3B | EUR 1.1B | EUR 1.3B net debt | 3.56x |
| 2022 | EUR 1.4B | EUR 1.4B | EUR 1.4B net debt | 1.71x |
| 2021 | EUR 1.2B | EUR 1.3B | EUR 1.2B net debt | 1.92x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
Capital spending patterns show that management has already passed the peak of its factory building cycle. Capital expenditures fell to 13.2% of revenue in 2025 from nearly 15% in 2024, reflecting the completion of the new Maranello e-building. This flexible facility allows the company to assemble internal combustion engines, hybrids, and electric powertrains under one roof. Rather than chasing speculative mass-market volume, research spending remains focused on proprietary electric motors, batteries, and software. As major infrastructure investments conclude, the business is entering a cash harvest phase where capital efficiency and return on invested capital should steadily climb.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EUR 943.2M | EUR 919M |
| 2024 | EUR 989.2M | EUR 894.1M |
| 2023 | EUR 862.6M | EUR 881.6M |
| 2022 | EUR 347.7M | EUR 775.6M |
| 2021 | EUR 352.3M | EUR 768.1M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Ferrari Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in EUR; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (EUR) | Base case (EUR) | Bull case (EUR) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | FX (EUR/USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €335.54 | €357.49 | €367.33 | $750.26 | 1.1360 | |
| €345.61 | €364.64 | €378.35 | $736.44 | 1.1255 | |
| €345.82 | €369.91 | €389.70 | $743.40 | 1.1272 | |
| €349.28 | €376.49 | €397.49 | $755.15 | 1.1312 | |
| €342.30 | €383.35 | €405.44 | $776.22 | 1.1401 | |
| €355.99 | €392.91 | €417.61 | $787.13 | 1.1452 | |
| €352.43 | €400.03 | €434.31 | $802.83 | 1.1510 | |
| €359.48 | €402.94 | €443.00 | $812.05 | 1.1584 | |
| €348.69 | €411.13 | €447.43 | $839.18 | 1.1617 | |
| €355.67 | €419.65 | €460.85 | $850.50 | 1.1694 | |
| €348.55 | €426.78 | €470.07 | $872.39 | 1.1719 | |
| €352.04 | €432.91 | €484.17 | $885.51 | 1.1763 | |
| €345.00 | €441.20 | €493.85 | $909.56 | 1.1781 | |
| €355.35 | €450.58 | €503.73 | $916.13 | 1.1832 | |
| €351.80 | €456.57 | €518.84 | $936.51 | 1.1867 | |
| €358.83 | €462.46 | €529.22 | $947.34 | 1.1894 | |
| €351.65 | €469.68 | €534.51 | $969.59 | 1.1887 | |
| €362.20 | €478.72 | €550.54 | $979.99 | 1.1913 | |
| €358.58 | €484.45 | €561.55 | $999.60 | 1.1971 | |
| €362.17 | €492.01 | €572.79 | $1,012 | 1.1964 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The consensus across research inputs independently confirms that operational performance has decoupled from unit volume. Contractual multi-year order backlogs extending through 2027 and bespoke personalization exceeding twenty percent of revenues provide rock-solid gross margin defense above fifty-one percent. However, input reports exhibit correlated vulnerability when extrapolating thirty-five to forty times earnings multiples into a persistent four to five percent risk-free rate regime. The strongest credible contrarian insight emphasizes equity duration risk: mid-single-digit top-line growth cannot permanently command peak luxury multiples when debt yields offer viable competition. Unsupported claims asserting catastrophic electric powertrain rejection are moderated against documented pre-orders. Consequently, relative weighting prioritizes rigorous primary-filing analyses that reconcile industrial cash conversion and factor in mechanical multiple compression toward thirty times earnings, ensuring fundamental compounding drives the scenario rather than speculative re-rating.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Exemplary research quality supported by primary SEC filings and Capital Markets Day targets. Accurately links decelerating volume growth and duration headwinds to multiple normalization while detailing defensible industrial cash generation and shareholder returns.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraDistinguished by meticulous primary source reconciliation, distinguishing industrial from consolidated cash perimeters. Grounds conservative multiples in cash distribution commitments, correctly concluding that exceptional franchise economics offer solid but mature equity compounding.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashDemonstrates sound causal logic regarding mix enrichment and hypercar monetization overriding unit volume limits. While grounded in realistic pricing mechanics, the path slightly downplays structural discount rate pressure on terminal earnings multiples.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides rigorous analysis of owner earnings, contractually locked order coverage through 2027, and working capital dynamics. Reliably balances robust operating compounding with realistic valuation compression driven by restrictive global bond yields.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashSolid economic moat reasoning emphasizing negative working capital from customer advances and pristine interest coverage. Realistically argues that multiple compression toward thirty times earnings will absorb part of fundamental earnings compounding.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashArticulates a persuasive contrarian assessment of equity duration risk, highlighting how a four percent sovereign yield backdrop penalizes high-multiple consumer franchises. However, it overstates client acoustic resistance to the initial electric transition.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents unique, well-substantiated insights regarding dynastic governance stability and low-volume regulatory derogations in Brussels. Economic projections are sound, though international logistics and tariff friction are weighted slightly too heavily.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashEffectively captures Veblen status signaling, agile multi-powertrain integration in the dedicated facility, and strong pricing power. However, the modeled equity trajectory reflects slightly excessive optimism regarding mid-cycle multiple re-expansion.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThorough macroeconomic framework evaluating debt-cycle transmission and discount-rate drag on luxury compounding. Successfully links high personalization gross margins with earnings resilience, maintaining balanced through-cycle multiple expectations.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashAstute tactical reading of recent multiple de-rating as an asymmetric entry point supported by contractual order book visibility. Identifies clear catalysts in hypercar handovers, though near-term price progression slightly understates tariff risks.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashCorrectly identifies sovereign allocation power and unprecedented margin realization from bespoke programs. The thesis receives a moderate discount due to an aggressive terminal valuation multiple that ignores persistent global monetary tightening.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashCompetent assessment of internal component manufacturing advantages and balance sheet solvency. It carries a slightly lower weight because its path assumes terminal multiple persistence near thirty-five times despite high baseline discount rates.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashGrounded operational analysis of hypercar margin cascading and multi-year backlog security. Displays solid causal consistency, though it models rapid multiple recovery that partially discounts ongoing transatlantic tariff and regulatory compliance friction.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides a valuable contrarian challenge regarding volume ceilings and emotional dilution from electrification. While the critique of battery weight is physically sound, projecting multiple collapse to twenty-four times overlooks proven order backlog durability.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Ferrari consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 86 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01Ferrari N.V. - Form 6-K - FY2025sec.gov
- 02Ferrari N.V. - Form 6-K - FY2026sec.gov
- 03Ferrari N.V. - Form 6-K - FY2026sec.gov
- 04www.sec.govsec.gov
- 05www.sec.govsec.gov
- 06US plans to hike tariffs on EU cars to 25% will hit luxury market the most | Trade War News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
- 07ferrari reveals features of first fully electric vehicle raises 2026 forecastsbarchart.com
- 08Ferrari Stock Forecast 2026–2030 | Future Outlook | Capital.comcapital.com
- 09https://cdn.ferrari.com/cms/network/media/pdf/CS_CMD_2025_Finance_ENG.pdfcdn.ferrari.com
- 10Trump says he's raising EU auto tariffs to 25%cnbc.com
- 11RACE Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNNcnn.com
- 12New 25% tariff on European cars could raise prices fast — here are which models will cost morecreators.yahoo.com
- 13Ferrari's $640K Luce EV sells out 2026 allocation: ~500 units | Electrekelectrek.co
- 14Newsletter Newsletters Events Events Podcasts Videos Africanewseuronews.com
- 15PERSONALIZATIONS AND MIX CONTINUE TO DRIVE STRONG RESULTS AND 2026 GUIDANCE RAISEferrari.com
And 71 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
8 fieldsebit · ebitda · grossProfit · interestExpense · +4 more fields
Balance sheet
10 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +6 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
annual: 2016-12-31–2025-12-31, 10 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods
Currencies cited: EUR, USD (quote EUR; primary reporting EUR; converted/valuation USD).
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