AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Core Scientific (CORZ) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
NEUTRAL
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
BUY$21
+14.8%5-Year
NEUTRAL$33
+83.5%Latest flagship insight
Energized Megawatt Scarcity Collides With High Yield Debt Refinancing Reality
Consensus reflects sharp divergence between exceptional asset scarcity and severe capital structure friction. While long-term take-or-pay contracts monetize valuable energized substations, substantial senior debt service and dilution from warrants cap per-share equity appreciation until operational cash flow inflects.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Michael Burry (Vulture), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Elon Musk (Visionary), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Machiavelli (Insider), Universal Investor (Polymath), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Core Scientific at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $18,346 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 18.25 | +1.45% | +1.45% | High-density colocation revenue expands as CoreWeave capacity energizes, partially offset by construction financing friction and restrictive policy rates that cap broad multiple expansion. |
| Q1 2027 | 18.54 | +1.57% | +3.04% | Fourth-quarter results demonstrate accelerating colocation receipts, though elevated project debt coupons and seasonal electricity tariffs across Texas facilities temper early equity enthusiasm. |
| Q2 2027 | 19.78 | +6.69% | +9.94% | Commercial energization of initial Pecos capacity validates high-density buildout schedules and contracted unit economics, narrowing the execution discount despite ongoing conversion capex. |
| Q3 2027 | 20.65 | +4.42% | +14.80% | CoreWeave billings approach targeted baseline run-rates, lifting recurring operating cash flow and reinforcing the durability of contracted cash streams over legacy mining. |
| Q4 2027 | 21.42 | +3.71% | +19.05% | Substantial completion of initial campus retrofits supports forward EBITDA estimates, though year-end financing disclosures and warrant dilution overhang keep gains measured. |
| Q1 2028 | 22.29 | +4.05% | +23.88% | Operating cash flow comfortably covers baseline senior note interest as the second phase of high-density capacity energizes, demonstrating financial self-sufficiency. |
| Q2 2028 | 23.23 | +4.25% | +29.14% | Phase-one AMD deployments achieve commercial operation, diversifying counterparty credit and expanding contracted colocation revenue across Texas and Southeastern facilities. |
| Q3 2028 | 23.93 | +3.02% | +33.04% | Summer power demand tests grid reliability, but contractual pass-through terms insulate net margins, reassuring credit markets and stabilizing equity price performance. |
| Q4 2028 | 25.10 | +4.86% | +39.51% | Contracted colocation run-rates reach mature targets while the complete phaseout of unprofitable self-mining eliminates commodity hashprice beta from consolidated results. |
| Q1 2029 | 26.01 | +3.65% | +44.60% | Initial full-year operating profitability from converted data centers prompts sell-side coverage revisions, shifting valuation heuristics from cyclical mining to digital infrastructure. |
| Q2 2029 | 26.97 | +3.68% | +49.92% | Disciplined capital expenditure allows free cash flow conversion to inflect positively, supporting early debt paydown and reducing enterprise credit risk spreads. |
| Q3 2029 | 27.21 | +0.88% | +51.24% | Refinancing discussions on near-dated project debt face elevated benchmark rate hurdles, causing modest quarterly consolidation while underlying rental operations remain intact. |
| Q4 2029 | 28.48 | +4.66% | +58.29% | Contracted lease escalators and steady capacity utilization generate predictable landlord cash flows, solidifying baseline institutional ownership across infrastructure benchmarks. |
| Q1 2030 | 29.25 | +2.72% | +62.59% | Deleveraging progress improves net coverage ratios, transferring enterprise value from senior creditors to common equity as debt service burdens progressively contract. |
| Q2 2030 | 30.10 | +2.91% | +67.32% | Operational high-density compute capacity reaches steady-state scale, with organic revenue compounding driven by annual contractual escalators rather than speculative buildouts. |
| Q3 2030 | 30.12 | +0.06% | +67.42% | Regional grid transmission congestion reinforces the scarcity value of energized substations, defending tenant retention rates and sustaining high renewal pricing power. |
| Q4 2030 | 31.18 | +3.53% | +73.33% | Resolution of legacy warrant overhang and simplified balance-sheet structure broaden institutional investor appeal, supporting consistent valuation multiples heading into fiscal 2031. |
| Q1 2031 | 31.50 | +1.02% | +75.10% | Preemptive refinancing of the 2031 senior secured notes at tighter spreads eliminates the maturity cliff, removing long-standing structural debt overhang. |
| Q2 2031 | 32.30 | +2.54% | +79.55% | Substantially lowered annual interest outlays expand net income margins, enabling board evaluation of initial capital return frameworks and dividend initiation. |
| Q3 2031 | 33.01 | +2.18% | +83.46% | The five-year transformation culminates in a stabilized, highly cash-generative digital infrastructure utility commanding resilient asset-backed valuation multiples across its energized fleet. |
The investment thesis represents an economic arbitrage between physical power scarcity and financial leverage. By retiring unprofitable digital asset self-mining, the business is repurposing 1.1 gigawatts of energized high-voltage substations into high-density colocation facilities backed by long-term take-or-pay leases with CoreWeave and AMD. This structural shift replaces volatile commodity revenue with durable, inflation-escalated cash flows that capitalize at infrastructure multiples. However, valuation sensitivity remains acute: carrying 4.3 billion dollars of debt with a 7.75% coupon consumes 256 million dollars annually, while prospective warrant exercises expand the fully diluted share count toward 508 to 550 million. The primary counterargument is that high capital expenditurecapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry requirements and elevated benchmark interest rates will absorb operational cash gains before common equity captures meaningful value.
Key insights
- Contracted take-or-pay lease structures guarantee fixed revenue floors with full utility cost pass-through, eliminating direct commodity hashprice risk.
- Extreme tenant concentration across two counterparties leaves project-level debt lockboxes acutely vulnerable to downstream AI enterprise monetization friction.
- Multi-year utility interconnection queues exceeding five years defend site replacement values, ensuring robust downside asset backing through refinancing cycles.
The company is transforming itself from a volatile bitcoin miner into a dependable data center landlord for artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry. It owns rare, pre-connected electrical power capacity that would take competitors over five years to build today. By signing multi-year rental agreements with major tech tenants, the business is locking in steady cash flows. However, rebuilding these facilities requires billions in expensive borrowing, and heavy interest payments will limit shareholder profits until projects are fully up and running.
Key insights
- Rare access to electrical power grids provides an irreplaceable competitive moateconomic moatCompetitive advantage protecting market share and profitability from rivals.View full glossary entry against industry rivals.
- Long-term rental agreements create dependable revenues that protect the business from volatile crypto markets.
- Heavy corporate debt and potential share dilution mean investors must wait for genuine cash profits.
Deep Dive
The prevailing crowd narrative views the company through opposing extremes: either as an uninvestable former crypto miner weighed down by massive GAAP net losses and bankruptcy stigma, or as an unhedged AI infrastructureai infrastructureThe compute, networking, storage, power, cooling, software, and facilities used to develop and operate AI systems.View full glossary entry gold rush winner. Retail commentary frequently fixates on headline paper losses, while sell-side analysts project aggressive multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry, assuming flawless facility conversion and treating contracted megawatt announcements as immediate, risk-free shareholder cash flow.
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Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? The prevailing crowd narrative views the company through opposing extremes: either as an uninvestable former crypto miner weighed down by massive GAAP net losses and bankruptcy stigma, or as an unhedged AI infrastructureai infrastructureThe compute, networking, storage, power, cooling, software, and facilities used to develop and operate AI systems.View full glossary entry gold rush winner. Retail commentary frequently fixates on headline paper losses, while sell-side analysts project aggressive multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry, assuming flawless facility conversion and treating contracted megawatt announcements as immediate, risk-free shareholder cash flow.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The reports establish mild underpricing relative to replacement asset value, but with an important caveat regarding capital structurecapital structureThe mix of debt and equity used to finance a business.View full glossary entry friction. The crowd incorrectly conflates non-cash mark-to-market warrant liabilities with operational cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry, overlooking that high-density colocation gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry already exceed 65%. However, enthusiastic buyers underestimate the 508-to-550-million diluted share count and 256 million dollars in annual senior note interest. The analytical edge lies in valuing contracted megawatts as a leveraged real estate turnaround rather than an unconstrained software monopoly.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? The decisive catalyst is the commercial energization and billing commencement of the initial AMD-campus tranches alongside completed CoreWeave deployments across 2027. Demonstrating consecutive quarters of colocation revenue exceeding 200 million dollars and positive consolidated operating cash flowoperating cash flowCash generated or consumed by a company's core business operations.View full glossary entry will conclusively prove that take-or-pay rents cover fixed debt service. This tangible operational evidence will force mainstream institutions to abandon legacy mining valuation heuristics and re-rate the stock as an infrastructure landlord.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Mixed
- Volatility
- High Erratic
- Cycle position
- Growing Awareness
Sentiment is acutely split between value-oriented skepticism over negative tangible equity and growth-driven optimism surrounding power scarcity. This tension centers on whether contracted operating cash flows will mature fast enough to service high debt burdens before dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry caps equity upside.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic backdrop represents a challenging headwind. With Federal Reserve policy rates held near 4.00% and ten-year Treasury yields pinned near 5.0%, elevated borrowing costs directly penalize capital-intensive infrastructure retrofits and inflate project-debt coupons. However, structural electricity inflation and multi-year grid transmission delays act as an offsetting commercial tailwind, drastically enhancing the scarcity value and rental pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry of existing energized utility substations.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The central analytical debate divides analysts into two camps: those modeling a frictionless infrastructure re-rating and those projecting a debt-burdened capital trap. Optimistic views assume the twenty-four billion dollar contracted backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry seamlessly converts into 1.2 billion dollars in recurring EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry, justifying premium multiples. Conversely, conservative frameworks emphasize that 4.3 billion dollars in gross debt, 256 million dollars in annual interest, and dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry toward 550 million shares severely restrict equity cash flow. Resolving this debate requires tracking verified operating cash collections and the coupon pricing of the next AMD project bond.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreHigh79/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take-or-pay colocation contract monetization | Competitive Positioning | +45% | +75% | Transitioning over 1.1 gigawatts of critical capacity into 12-to-15-year take-or-pay leases with CoreWeave and AMD secures over twenty-four billion dollars in cumulative contracted backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry. Contractual annual escalators and direct power pass-through mechanisms convert volatile commodity mining exposure into an annuity-like infrastructure revenue stream that commands superior valuation multiples. |
| Energized grid interconnection power scarcity | Sector And Industry | +35% | +45% | Transmission interconnection queues across major regional transmission organizations now span five to seven years, creating massive scarcity value for existing energized substations. Controlling over 1.2 gigawatts of energized capacity enables the company to extract premium colocation rates from power-starved hyperscalershyperscalersVery large cloud or internet-platform operators that run computing infrastructure at global scale.View full glossary entry, establishing an enduring speed-to-power moat that underwrites asset values. |
| Decommissioning unprofitable bitcoin self-mining | Operational Efficiency | +20% | +30% | Systematically retiring unprofitable digital asset self-mining eliminates volatile hashprice exposure and heavy ASIC depreciation. Canceling hardware purchase commitments and reallocating high-voltage power to high-density colocation tenants removes severe operating drag, elevating consolidated gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry toward mature data center benchmarks. |
| Warrant liability accounting noise extinguishment | Capital Allocation | +18% | +35% | Post-bankruptcy reorganization warrants have generated massive non-cash mark-to-market net losses during share price rallies. As these derivative instruments reach expiration or exercise thresholds through 2027, GAAP reporting will normalize, unmasking underlying cash generation and opening the shareholder register to fundamental institutional mandates. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior secured debt service carrying drag | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -25% | -40% | Issuing 3.3 billion dollars in 7.75% senior secured notes due 2031 imposes an annual interest burden of 256 million dollars across a 4.3 billion dollar total debt loaddebt loadSignificant financial burden requiring constant cash flow to maintain solvency and service interest.View full glossary entry. In a restrictive monetary environment, this fixed coupon absorbs substantial operational cash flow, restricting equity distributions and elevating refinancing risks. |
| Massive capital expenditurecapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry retrofit requirements | Capital Allocation | -22% | -28% | Converting basic air-cooled crypto warehouses into Tier-3 liquid-cooled facilities demands 11 to 12 million dollars per megawatt, driving multi-billion-dollar capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry programs. Front-loaded spending maintains negative free cash flownegative free cash flowA condition where cash outflows for operations and investment exceed cash generated in the period.View full glossary entry through 2028, necessitating external financing and leaving minimal liquidity cushion for construction delays. |
| DilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry from warrants and convertibles | Capital Allocation | -18% | -10% | The capital structurecapital structureThe mix of debt and equity used to finance a business.View full glossary entry carries significant latent dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry from emergence warrants, convertible debtconvertible debtDebt instruments convertible into equity, impacting balance sheet risk and potential shareholder dilution.View full glossary entry, and performance options, expanding the fully diluted share count toward 508 to 550 million shares. This mechanically reduces per-share participation in enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry growth, creating persistent drag on equity appreciation. |
| Extreme tenant and counterparty concentration | Competitive Positioning | -16% | -22% | Over eighty percent of future contracted colocation revenue relies on CoreWeave and AMD. CoreWeave remains a highly leveraged operator vulnerable to enterprise AI spending cycles. Any contract renegotiation, billing dispute, or tenant payment delay directly impairs cash inflows and compromises project-level debt service coverage. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor tenant credit default or restructuring | 22% | -60% | An abrupt contraction in enterprise generative AIgenerative aiArtificial intelligence that produces new text, images, audio, code, video, or other content from learned patterns and user input.View full glossary entry spending induces acute liquidity distress at CoreWeave, leading to lease repudiation or forced rent reductions across primary campuses. Deprived of contracted colocation receipts, debt service lockboxes breach covenants, triggering asset foreclosure and catastrophic equity value destruction. |
| Legislative grid emergency load curtailment | 24% | -40% | State utility commissions or regional grid operators enact emergency power curtailments or punitive large-load tariffs to protect residential electricity consumers during grid strain. Forcible throttling of facility uptime breaches tenant service level agreements, incurring severe penalty payments, deferred billings, and structural margin compressionmargin compressionThe narrowing of profit margins due to rising costs or declining pricing power.View full glossary entry across operating sites. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperscale takeover at capacity premium | 28% | +60% | A major cloud provider or sovereign infrastructuresovereign infrastructureSovereign infrastructure refers to strategic physical or digital systems maintained under national control for security, resilience, and policy autonomy.View full glossary entry fund launches an unsolicited cash buyout to acquire 1.2 gigawatts of energized power, circumventing seven-year utility queues. Materializing by late 2027, the buyout crystallizes immediate replacement asset value, eliminates balance-sheet debt discounts, and delivers an immediate premium to public shareholders. |
| Full AMD multi-gigawatt reservation exercise | 32% | +50% | AMD exercises its option to reserve up to 1,925 additional megawatts ahead of December 2028 to support surging accelerator deployments. Converting this reservation into binding fifteen-year leases doubles contracted backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry past forty billion dollars, facilitating investment-grade project debt financing and dramatically accelerating long-term operating cash flowoperating cash flowCash generated or consumed by a company's core business operations.View full glossary entry generation. |
Company Financial Analysis
Core Scientific Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
Core Scientific's latest financial reports tell two very different stories. On the surface, the company posted an alarming net loss of 1.16 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026. However, that headline loss was almost entirely caused by non-cash accounting adjustments on post-bankruptcy warrants that rise in paper value when the stock price climbs. It does not represent actual cash leaving the business. Behind the accounting noise, real operational performance is improving rapidly. Quarterly revenue surged 109% year-over-year to 164.2 million dollars, driven by high-density data hosting replacing older crypto mining. As long-term contracts expand, steady rental receipts will gradually replace volatile mining revenues with dependable recurring cash.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 319M | USD -288.6M | USD -450.8M |
| 2024 | USD 510.7M | USD -1.3B | USD -52.1M |
| 2023 | USD 502.4M | USD -246.5M | USD 49M |
| 2022 | USD 640.3M | USD -2.1B | USD -396.5M |
| 2021 | USD 544.5M | USD 47.3M | USD -116M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2021 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Profitability margins show a dramatic split between the company's dying past and its growing future. In the second quarter of 2026, old bitcoin self-mining operated at a terrible negative 56% gross margin. In contrast, the high-performance data hosting segment generated strong cash gross margins exceeding 65%, where customers directly cover their own power bills. This creates a powerful permanent improvement in corporate profitability. As unprofitable mining operations are completely shut down by the end of 2026, high-margin hosting rents will dominate the business. Over time, these predictable contracts will lift overall operating margins toward standard digital infrastructure levels.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -224.6M | -70.4% | -90.5% |
| 2024 | USD -19.2M | -3.8% | -257.5% |
| 2023 | USD 9M | 1.8% | -49.1% |
| 2022 | USD -244.6M | -38.2% | -335.2% |
| 2021 | USD 166.6M | 30.6% | 8.7% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
The company's balance sheet reflects heavy borrowing and historical restructuring. Total debt stands at approximately 4.3 billion dollars, following a 3.3 billion dollar note offering that carries an expensive 7.75% interest rate. Furthermore, past bankruptcy accounting leaves the business with negative reported stockholders' equity, offering no traditional accounting safety cushion. Nevertheless, the company maintains roughly 1.8 billion dollars in available liquidity and dedicated cash reserves. The true financial foundation rests on irreplaceable physical power substations and long-term tenant contracts. If project financing stays on schedule, contracted rental payments will protect the company from immediate solvency risks.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.1B | USD 311.4M | USD 748.9M net debt | 1.15x |
| 2024 | USD 1.2B | USD 836.2M | USD 363.6M net debt | 6.72x |
| 2023 | USD 865.5M | USD 50.4M | USD 815.1M net debt | 0.20x |
| 2022 | USD 20.4M | USD 15.9M | USD 20.4M net debt | 0.46x |
| 2021 | USD 818.8M | USD 117.9M | USD 700.9M net debt | 2.36x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
Management is investing massive amounts of capital into its properties, spending 797.5 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026 alone. This spending is not routine maintenance; it is an aggressive push to gut basic crypto mining warehouses and rebuild them into advanced, liquid-cooled data centers capable of running artificial intelligence supercomputers. This aggressive investment resulted in a trailing twelve-month free cash flow deficit of 968 million dollars. While anchor customers like CoreWeave help pay for some site modifications, the overall buildout will require billions in funding. Investors must recognize that these capital outlays will lock up corporate cash until newly converted facilities open.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 729M | -- |
| 2024 | USD 95M | USD 11.8M |
| 2023 | USD 16.2M | USD 7.2M |
| 2022 | USD 601.7M | USD 27M |
| 2021 | USD 59.3M | USD 7.7M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Core Scientific Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (USD) | Base case (USD) | Bull case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.55 | $18.52 | $19.43 | $750.26 | |
| $16.23 | $19.11 | $21.37 | $736.44 | |
| $16.72 | $20.26 | $22.65 | $743.40 | |
| $15.89 | $21.27 | $24.65 | $755.15 | |
| $15.41 | $22.54 | $28.11 | $776.22 | |
| $15.72 | $23.39 | $31.20 | $787.13 | |
| $15.09 | $24.60 | $34.01 | $802.83 | |
| $15.24 | $25.79 | $36.05 | $812.05 | |
| $14.78 | $27.23 | $38.93 | $839.18 | |
| $15.08 | $28.10 | $38.15 | $850.50 | |
| $15.23 | $29.34 | $40.82 | $872.39 | |
| $14.92 | $30.11 | $44.09 | $885.51 | |
| $15.07 | $31.67 | $46.73 | $909.56 | |
| $14.77 | $32.63 | $48.14 | $916.13 | |
| $14.92 | $33.81 | $50.54 | $936.51 | |
| $14.47 | $34.44 | $50.04 | $947.34 | |
| $14.76 | $35.84 | $52.54 | $969.59 | |
| $14.47 | $36.64 | $54.64 | $979.99 | |
| $14.90 | $37.64 | $55.73 | $999.60 | |
| $15.05 | $38.68 | $57.40 | $1,012 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The independently supported consensus reveals a structural transformation from volatile cryptocurrency mining to high-density colocation, backed by over twenty-four billion dollars in long-term take-or-pay contracts across 1.1 gigawatts. However, heavy correlation exists among optimistic reports that treat headline backlog as settled cash while ignoring substantial project financing requirements. The strongest credible contrarian case emphasizes that carrying 4.3 billion dollars in debt with 256 million dollars in annual interest against negative book equity severely restricts equity returns in a restrictive monetary regime. Furthermore, unmodeled warrant exercises and convertible instruments expand the diluted share count toward 508 to 550 million shares. Reports rigorously incorporating balance-sheet leverage, capital expenditure cash burn, and per-share dilution receive the highest weights, while speculative scenarios modeling extreme multiple expansion without financing friction are sharply downweighted.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraDelivers the most disciplined framework, reconciling fiscal calendar discrepancies, modeling fully diluted share counts of 550 million, and properly separating cash operating earnings from unbillable promotional pipelines, anchoring fair value near twenty-eight dollars.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Provides rigorous analysis grounded in SEC filings, correctly isolating non-cash warrant volatility from operating cash flow. It models realistic project debt financing spreads and accounts for diluted share overhangs, offering a credible balanced valuation bridge.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashOffers strong empirical substantiation of the May 2026 senior notes and AMD lease terms. However, its forecast path assumes rapid margin normalization without sufficiently penalizing near-term debt service carrying burdens.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents the strongest contrarian case, detailing the fixed 256 million dollar annual debt service on 3.3 billion dollars in senior notes, negative book equity, and severe customer concentration, providing vital protection against consensus groupthink.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents an incisive critique of the brutal capital intensity of converting basic mining warehouses into Tier-3 data centers, rightly forecasting muted per-share price gains due to heavy dilution and negative book equity.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashForensically evaluates power interconnect scarcity and tenant credit enhancement through the AMD master agreement, though it applies somewhat generous EBITDA multiples that underestimate prolonged monetary policy headwinds.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashHighlights critical economic realities regarding negative free cash flow, severe retrofit capital intensity, and inverted capital structure, but moderately discounts the durable high margin contractual floors established by recent take-or-pay anchor agreements.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashApplies a sound asset-replacement cost approach to energized megawatts, though it assumes an overly smooth transition away from legacy mining without accounting for near-term cash drains from lingering facility conversions.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashSolidly explains how multi-year utility queue delays sustain pricing power, but projects rapid multiple expansion that assumes benign debt refinancing despite higher-for-longer policy rates.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents a coherent thermodynamic thesis regarding the shift toward high-density computing, yet understates the execution friction of electrical equipment procurement lead times and projects overly aggressive long-term valuation multiples.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides thorough documentation of high-yield debt obligations and transformer delivery bottlenecks, but adopts an overly aggressive terminal multiple that conflicts with its own identified friction factors.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashCorrectly identifies the scarcity value of energized high-voltage substations, but displays excessive multiple-expansion optimism while heavily downplaying capital expenditure hurdles, macro refinancing costs, and substantial warrant-driven share dilution.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashAccurately articulates the sovereign infrastructure moat of energized power drops, but models an ungrounded 219 percent five-year appreciation that largely ignores refinancing friction, warrant dilution, and project cost inflation.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashOffers a compelling macroeconomic paradigm on physical power chokepoints, yet assumes unrealistic long-term multiple expansion and understates the friction of elevated interest rates on debt-funded data center buildouts.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Core Scientific consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 82 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
- 02Core Scientific, Inc./tx - Form 10-Q - FY2026sec.gov
- 03Core Scientific, Inc./tx - Form 8-K - FY2026sec.gov
- 04core-20260630sec.gov
- 05Documentsec.gov
- 06Core Scientific Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results :: Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ)investors.corescientific.com
- 07Core Scientific Q2 revenue doubles as AMD deal expands AI leasing pipeline: Q2 Earnings - Blockspaceblockspace.media
- 08KBW upgrades Core Scientific after AMD leases raise contracted value, eyes 35% rise - Blockspaceblockspace.media
- 09Needham keeps Core Scientific at Buy with $29 target after 530 MW AMD lease deal - Blockspaceblockspace.media
- 10Needham lifts Core Scientific target to $35 after AMD lease - Blockspaceblockspace.media
- 11[CORZ Q1 2026 Earnings Call] Core Scientific Delivers 243 MW, Secures $3.3B Bond, Raises Margin Guidance as Hyperscaler Exclusivity Expires — BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
- 12Core Scientific (CORZ) Shareholders Rejected a $9B Sale. Does the AMD Deal Vindicate Them?finance.yahoo.com
- 13Core Scientific Shareholders Vote Against $9B CoreWeave Mergerfinance.yahoo.com
- 14Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) Latest Press Releases & Corporate News - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 15Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
And 67 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
4 fieldscapitalExpenditures · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · totalCashFromOperatingActivities
annual: 2019-09-30–2025-09-30, 7 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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